Finally, the bubble burst and I lost

Finally, the bubble burst and I lost

After the anger subsided, I felt relieved, finally, the bubble burst and I lost. Not to say I hadn’t lost on random games in the last few months, but week on week, month on month I was just stacking it up. The pressure was building on me, I was getting erratic and I knew it. I bought a bunch of books, of all 10 titles I bought “What I learned losing a million dollars” by Brendan Moynihan jumped out at me. Almost as if I knew I was getting wild and wanted to help protect what I have achieved in this first 9 months of trading.

It’s not as if I wanted to lose, but it was inevitable, the way in which I lost it though was avoidable and that’s where the anger came from. I remember when I used to come home early from a poker session sometimes and Bec would know usually I had done my balls. “Did you play bad or did run bad”? she would ask. Knowing that if I lost playing bad I’d be upset with myself. In fact, when I had played great poker and just got unlucky I was rarely upset (on the back end of a 4 month break even stretch those sessions started to take their toll too but for 99% of the time I was fine). It was the bad play where I used to relive the hand countless times and think about how or what I should have done better. I think its the fact that the mistake is often so elementary and one you’ve made before that pisses you off.

Over confidence and the “invincibility cloak” activated. Really that’s all I can put it down too, the fact that I started to believe I was going to be able to dig myself out of anything. Everything I’ve touched has turned to gold of late and I started getting loose. What started as a small investment with some hedges in place on Mexico against Chile turned into a monster $3,000 loss after I compounded the error by trying to buy my way out of trouble. It wasn’t just the fact I was betting where I have no edge, but I chased, tut tut, naughty boy.

Money lost, nothing lost, confidence lost everything lost. It’s amazing how quickly confidence comes and goes. With those errors came back questions about my lack of judgement in the moment, as well as concerns on discipline and abilities to learn from my mistakes. These were issues I’ve dealt with firstly in poker but trading sport too. I’ve always considered myself a very astute bankroll/ exposure limit manager. I remember seeing people in for $1500, $2000, $3000 in a $2/$3 game of cards and wonder where their limit was. I mean, those games don’t run deep enough that you can ever get that sort of money back in a session, not to mention you ain’t thinking right when you that far down the well. I always limited myself to 2 buy-ins per session with a third available if the game was crazy hot and there were whales throwing good money after bad. In fact I saw it as a big edge I had over my competitors on the felt. They didn’t know how not to lose. By that I mean when they lost, they lost big, when I lost, I lost small. The same principle is helpful in sports too in my opinion.

One quick war story, the one that got away. Missed a big payday the other night, I was fucking spewing. I had a theory that seemed fine but sadly the theory didn’t play out in practice. I’ve attached some screenshots so you can see how things progressed. The short of the long was I had a nice green level book in the Manly v Penrith game a couple of weekends ago. Manly scored probably their 4th try to go out by 20 early in the second half. At Brooky, 20 in front, Penrith playing pretty average, but still, 35 mins to go. Haven’t seen this volume before, but someone comes in and lumps on $25,000 at $1.06 on Manly. Penrith get a scrum inside attacking 30 and I decided to lay $5,000 of the now $12,000 left with some of my green, Mansour over in the corner. When the margin got back to 10 and Manly got 2 repeat sets I decided to hedge at $1.10. Manly seemed to have settled to me and I picked up a few ticks, if they went over in the 4th set, prices would be $1.02. They didn’t score and although I had plans to re-enter, that wasn’t practical as the liquidity isn’t there like it was when the person lumped at $1.06. I hedged for $1,000 profit but Penrith went on to score 27 unanswered points in 35 mins to win the game and I missed out on $3,000 of green. Dirty. Mind you, not as dirty as the backer at $1.06, literally from the moment he backed them, Manly never scored another point.

Period 1: +$10,425.07

Period 2: -$2,371.68

Account balance +$49,857.76 (9 months)

Cheers Mac

Betfair trading and betting profit/loss graph
Betfair trading and betting profit/loss graph
Betfair trading and betting individual plays from 1st of June 2016 to 21st of June 2016.
Betfair trading and betting individual plays from 1st of June 2016 to 21st of June 2016.
25000 backing $1.06 Manly v Penrith 2016 Betfair
What was left of the $25,000 lumpy @ $1.06
Layed $5000 at $1.06 on Manly
How my book looked after laying the $5000 on Manly at $1.06
Level trading book on Betfair. Rugby League NRL Manly v Penrith 2016
How I ended up, as you can see Manly price still $1.18 at this stage. Wish I left it haha

Trading update & the new guy

Trading update & the new guy

I’m running hot at the moment.  It’s been that good that I’m expecting every game or every weekend to be the weekend where it all turns to shit. Weirdly plays on your mind when you’re running so hot. It’s a battle in my head of not getting too cocky, thinking I’m invincible and not missing spots through fear of having losing bets. Weird one, been through it with poker too, the mind is a fucked up thing at times, pessimistic when winning and losing, weird.

Was a nice solid return to work this week, after giving $20,000 to someone in the Adelaide Hills I’ve never met before. Could have been a $5,000+ weekend this weekend but I butchered the fuck out of the game yesterday. I liked the Knights + but the Tariq Sims news spooked me. My ties to the team growing up also mean I need to be doubly sure when I pull the trigger in Knights games. I sat it out and traded it live in play instead. Fucking horror show my book was by the end of the game. I think if Knights won it was -$2,600 and if Eels won -$1100. Fair to say I was very lucky the last try wasn’t scored, saved me $1,500. My timing was just fucked, I flipped my book twice and it was close to the worst time I could have, brutal.

Most people know that I’m not convinced on the whole ‘kids thing’, when I was a lot younger I thought it was a good idea. As time goes by it scares me if I’m honest. I’ve heard both sides of the argument and at this stage I’m 60/40 towards “hell no”. In order to see if I’m any good at looking after another life, we got a dog. He’s pretty cool, makes me laugh, but the little fucker just loves pissing and shitting everywhere, should have called him Nate Myles. At least babies wear nappies, thats one tick in their column.

Period 1: +$3,356.78

Period 2: +$6,106.08

Period 3+$2,849.68

Account balance +$41,804.37 (8 months and 1 week)

Cheers Mac

Profit and loss graph from my Betfair trading and bookmaker wagers.
Profit and loss graph from my Betfair trading and bookmaker wagers.

 

Betfair trades and sports bets since last financial update.
Betfair trades and sports bets since last financial update.
Morkie Maltese x Yorkshire Terrier Ned
Ned on the way home from where we got him out past Gympie. He’s a ‘Morkie’ (Maltese x Yorkshire Terrier).
Morkie Ned grabbing money when I was counting it.
Smart guy, grabbed the cash while I was counting it.

 

Progressing, but another dint to the confidence.

This has not been a good week for the team at Gamble Gambol. My friend and side kick Jamie made one expensive misstep and I turned a winning week into a losing week in one foul day. I’m learning, I’m progressing, I think or is that me in denial? This is the problem, you think you are doing a lot of things right, but then you make these mistakes you’ve made before and you start second guessing yourself.

For me, the most part of the week was actually good. I was cruising along, I was up around $300 or 7% of my starting bank. Great stuff really. But that is really being focused on the results which is not something I’m big on. I like to instead look at the mechanics of the week and break down the plays I made more and how they can be improved. Focusing on process and not outcome.

Looking back over the week, there were problems even on the + $ days. I’ve set myself a bankroll now at the start of this week of $5,000. Off that, I have some maximum exposure limits per play, maximum losses off that exposure per play also. I broke those limits on a number of plays this week. For a reason unknown to me at this stage (could be anomaly or real reason for it) I start my sessions off with a loss, generally a big loss. I’m then scratching to get back for the session. I really need to plug the holes in my game if I’m going to make this what I want it to be. I’ll be listing details below and working profusely this week to fix those issues.

Pretty sure I’m not in denial, I’m making in roads, I’m doing a bunch of good things. I’ve been learning a lot, my skills are better, my knowledge is growing every day. I’ve been working with @adamchernoff on tennis and NFL. The guy has a wealth of knowledge, coming from a bookmaking background. In turn we are both using @Tennisratings (Daniel) spreadsheets which are sent out daily. They give a great profile on the player through statistics. Dan has also offered his assistance to look over some of my trades and help me improve. Very appreciative of that offer and will be taking him up on that this week.

The holes I must plug starting this week are:

  • Read this list before all trading sessions
  • Follow my liability rules strictly – have spreadsheet open
  • SELL LOSING POSITIONS
  • All trading at my desk in spare room
  • Thorough research before trading any match
  • More selective in which matches I trade

I’d be lying if I said I’m not disappointed, I am, but I can feel it, I can taste it, it’s so close. I just need to get a few things under control and I can make this happen, I can do this, but nothing good in life comes easy and this is testing me.

-$565 on the week account balance $4,335.

Cheers Luke

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Main wallet Betfair trading
Main Wallet trading loss from trading NFL, soccer, WTA tennis.
Australian wallet Betfair trading
Main Wallet trading loss from trading NFL, soccer, WTA tennis.