Finally, the bubble burst and I lost

Finally, the bubble burst and I lost

After the anger subsided, I felt relieved, finally, the bubble burst and I lost. Not to say I hadn’t lost on random games in the last few months, but week on week, month on month I was just stacking it up. The pressure was building on me, I was getting erratic and I knew it. I bought a bunch of books, of all 10 titles I bought “What I learned losing a million dollars” by Brendan Moynihan jumped out at me. Almost as if I knew I was getting wild and wanted to help protect what I have achieved in this first 9 months of trading.

It’s not as if I wanted to lose, but it was inevitable, the way in which I lost it though was avoidable and that’s where the anger came from. I remember when I used to come home early from a poker session sometimes and Bec would know usually I had done my balls. “Did you play bad or did run bad”? she would ask. Knowing that if I lost playing bad I’d be upset with myself. In fact, when I had played great poker and just got unlucky I was rarely upset (on the back end of a 4 month break even stretch those sessions started to take their toll too but for 99% of the time I was fine). It was the bad play where I used to relive the hand countless times and think about how or what I should have done better. I think its the fact that the mistake is often so elementary and one you’ve made before that pisses you off.

Over confidence and the “invincibility cloak” activated. Really that’s all I can put it down too, the fact that I started to believe I was going to be able to dig myself out of anything. Everything I’ve touched has turned to gold of late and I started getting loose. What started as a small investment with some hedges in place on Mexico against Chile turned into a monster $3,000 loss after I compounded the error by trying to buy my way out of trouble. It wasn’t just the fact I was betting where I have no edge, but I chased, tut tut, naughty boy.

Money lost, nothing lost, confidence lost everything lost. It’s amazing how quickly confidence comes and goes. With those errors came back questions about my lack of judgement in the moment, as well as concerns on discipline and abilities to learn from my mistakes. These were issues I’ve dealt with firstly in poker but trading sport too. I’ve always considered myself a very astute bankroll/ exposure limit manager. I remember seeing people in for $1500, $2000, $3000 in a $2/$3 game of cards and wonder where their limit was. I mean, those games don’t run deep enough that you can ever get that sort of money back in a session, not to mention you ain’t thinking right when you that far down the well. I always limited myself to 2 buy-ins per session with a third available if the game was crazy hot and there were whales throwing good money after bad. In fact I saw it as a big edge I had over my competitors on the felt. They didn’t know how not to lose. By that I mean when they lost, they lost big, when I lost, I lost small. The same principle is helpful in sports too in my opinion.

One quick war story, the one that got away. Missed a big payday the other night, I was fucking spewing. I had a theory that seemed fine but sadly the theory didn’t play out in practice. I’ve attached some screenshots so you can see how things progressed. The short of the long was I had a nice green level book in the Manly v Penrith game a couple of weekends ago. Manly scored probably their 4th try to go out by 20 early in the second half. At Brooky, 20 in front, Penrith playing pretty average, but still, 35 mins to go. Haven’t seen this volume before, but someone comes in and lumps on $25,000 at $1.06 on Manly. Penrith get a scrum inside attacking 30 and I decided to lay $5,000 of the now $12,000 left with some of my green, Mansour over in the corner. When the margin got back to 10 and Manly got 2 repeat sets I decided to hedge at $1.10. Manly seemed to have settled to me and I picked up a few ticks, if they went over in the 4th set, prices would be $1.02. They didn’t score and although I had plans to re-enter, that wasn’t practical as the liquidity isn’t there like it was when the person lumped at $1.06. I hedged for $1,000 profit but Penrith went on to score 27 unanswered points in 35 mins to win the game and I missed out on $3,000 of green. Dirty. Mind you, not as dirty as the backer at $1.06, literally from the moment he backed them, Manly never scored another point.

Period 1: +$10,425.07

Period 2: -$2,371.68

Account balance +$49,857.76 (9 months)

Cheers Mac

Betfair trading and betting profit/loss graph
Betfair trading and betting profit/loss graph
Betfair trading and betting individual plays from 1st of June 2016 to 21st of June 2016.
Betfair trading and betting individual plays from 1st of June 2016 to 21st of June 2016.
25000 backing $1.06 Manly v Penrith 2016 Betfair
What was left of the $25,000 lumpy @ $1.06
Layed $5000 at $1.06 on Manly
How my book looked after laying the $5000 on Manly at $1.06
Level trading book on Betfair. Rugby League NRL Manly v Penrith 2016
How I ended up, as you can see Manly price still $1.18 at this stage. Wish I left it haha

£100 to £14k Challenge Round 2!

That’s right guys, I’m back with my second attempt at my challenge. I know I fucked up the first one, but this time around I won’t be making the same mistakes again, hopefully.

Slight change of plan from last time; I’m mainly backing now not laying,  this reduces my exposure in the market and helps my frame of mind during the trade.

So far it’s working quite well, I’ve been mainly backing over 2.5, 3.5 and both teams to score. I’m basing my decisions from data I’ve collated on my website thegoalgenerator.com.

Another technique I’ve been using this time around compared to last is; removing liability. So when I’ve backed over 2.5, the moment the first goal comes, I remove my liability leaving a free bet on overs. If I think game is dead I may hedge and take profit, otherwise I let it run depends on how I’m feeling or how much I’ve had to drink, ha!

I was up about £30-40 at one point, but I lost around £14 on one play. I was happy with my decisions and sometimes picks just didn’t work out unfortunately.

So good news; I’m back and I’m on target. Let’s roll onto next week and make some fucking money!

I ended up +£16.74, after first week of challenge, my target was £10.

Bank – £116.74  – P/L – £16.74

Cheers Jamie

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Blown the Bank!

Blown the Bank!!

Well, sorry it’s been a while since the last update, I’ve only just come off suicide watch.

Last time I wrote a blog post I was a stupid cunt and it didn’t change. I managed to blow my whole bankroll on a silly silly bet (pissed at the time).

I tried a 0-0 scalp on the Boro game, backed it for £150, planned to lay out at a tick less for£75 and then hedge. I needed no goal within the first 3-4 minutes and I’d be home safe… FUCK!!! 2 minutes in and Boro scored!

WOW! I did it again, such an easy way to blow your bank. I know, it’s my fault, I shouldn’t have risked my whole bank, no excuses. That’s why I’ve been hiding in the Tora Bora caves with Bin Laden, I needed a break. I’ve come back with another plan of attack.

I’ll be restarting the challenge next week. My new plan is in order and here’s what I’m going to do different:

– Set a limit within Betfair for maximum loss
– Back more than lay (only lay under 3.00)
– Back when there’s value (setting my own true odds based on probability)
– Plan trades the night before to reduce risk of jumping into trades

Well that’s the plan for the challenge lets hope all this fucking about has helped me and I don’t go spunking all the bank up the wall again!

Cheers Jamie

I’m a stupid cunt!

I’m a stupid cunt!

Well, even that’s a stretch because; cunts are useful.

Week 3

Week 3 was going fantastic up until Saturday. My bank was roughly £265 and my most recent play on Chelsea netted me £11. I was above my weekly target and loving life.

I started looking through some of the later fixtures and HSV vs Frankfurt really caught my eye. I ran my numbers and the game met my criteria. Stupidly though, I over staked and layed the draw for £50 ending up with a liability of £135, half my bankroll. Although this is a huge trading no, no, there was some method to my madness. The idea was to trade straight out after an expected early goal and end up with around £20 profit. It sounded fool proof in theory.

WRONG! The game ends up 0-0, how the fuck it ended 0-0, I’ll never know! There was a bunch of near things; hit the bar, keepers saving everything, etc. In the end 0-0 and my arse was sore.

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There is lessons to be learned to be learnt from it all. Firstly, I should never have layed 50% of my bank, big lesson (I know this shit,totally my fault should never have happened). Secondly, stick to the plan Jamie you spaka!

I worked so hard last week, built really good profit, only to loose the majority of it in one play. That has really annoyed me.

However, the silver lining is, I’m in week 3 of the challenge and only 30p off the profit I needed to be on target for my end goal.

Hope you enjoyed reading and laughing at me crying into my beers on Saturday night, haha. ON TARGET! LETS DO THIS SHIT

P/L : -£105.11 Bank : £132.80

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