Prophet or profit?

Prophet or profit?

I’m still here 10 months on. Been many times where I thought I wouldn’t be and many times where I had to tell myself “I would be”. This far in I understand I still don’t know everything, still don’t have the consistency or stake levels I would like to have, but I’ve well exceeded my wildest expectations so far. Originally I thought if I can make $40,000 in my first year and get paid while learning, great! To make $75,000 in 10 months, crazy stuff.

My penultimate post, possibly anyway. I haven’t posted for ages as the motivation to do so has waned. The reasons I originally started this blog were; to be accountable and to show the path I went down to get to where ever I got to. In my absolute trading infancy blog posts from pro guys were what assured me that I wasn’t about to travel an impossible path. These trading guns weren’t savants, they were just ordinary people that worked hard to build edges in the game. Whether people learned what to do or what not to do, I hoped my journey may help others in the future. As for the accountability, I track my wins and my losses to the cent and I don’t give a fuck if I look stupid anymore. I used to use the fear of looking like an absolute stooge in the public forum as a motivation to “follow the rules”. It worked for the early stages, but as I’ve learnt more, I’ve understood that being wrong and looking like a stooge at times is all a part of it.

Following on from looking like a stooge, “What I learned Losing a Million Dollars” had some great stuff in there that’s really stuck with me. One thing Jim Paul talks about is do you want to be a “prophet or make profit”? Some people get more wrapped up in being right than they do of making money. This has terrible flow on effects including “personalising losses”. It definitely challenged my thinking, made me aware of this thought process and I’m working on completely removing it from my psyche. I’m trading for one reason, profit. I’ll still share some thoughts on my Twitter handle @lukeamac but I’m going to start winding down my blog and focusing on profit.

I’ll do a wrap up of the first 12 months when I get there and then after that, I don’t know if I’ll post again. Never say never, but they certainly won’t be frequent and may not be trading specific. Since my last post though I’ve had a great run, think it’s been about 5 or 6 weeks and my trading is becoming more and more efficient which is pleasing. Took me 10 months, but worked out I didn’t have to plug in my numbers into an online charting tool too, Excel will do it for you. What a noob. Anyway, new looking graph below but it charts the journey in its truest form.

+$26,176.16 account balance +$76,033.92 (10 months, 1 week)

Cheers Mac

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“Gambler rolls the dice on Squatter”

Usually about now I update my profit/loss, but this segment really needs its own post. I like to keep things as short as I can. Not sure where to start in order to best do that, I really need to start at the start. Anyway, bare with me, I’ll get through this the quickest I can.

Earlier this month I was watching The Project when a story about a squatter in the Adelaide Hills came on. 126 year old, 2 bedroom cottage, guy squatting in it, this story really intrigued me. It was a number of things that resonated to be honest; old school architecture, someone homeless, Aussie battler, significance in our short history of squatting, my connection with rural land and a modern day Ned Kelly squatter type story.

I wanted to see Iain stay in there, so I donated $50 to the GoFundMe page. I followed closely to see how it panned out for him and when the donations plateaued around $3000 (10% of the required amount), I emailed Iain and asked him to contact me if he fell short of his target. My original plan was find 6 people to chip in $5k each and help him out (the bill was smaller then). I got an email from him on the 10th of this month asking to call. I remember getting it, but I was busy and thought I would remember to call him back, I didn’t. Fast forward to the 24th of May at 2.39pm and I got another email from Iain; “Please call me – the auction is tomorrow – ran short – tried everything can think of”.

With the hammer due to go down at 11am the next day, time was short. Seriously short. After a limited chat to Iain I moved on to some fact checking. Without the boring details everything looked like it stacked up. Iain had been truthful to me about everything really, good signs. In the end it came down to a punt on a guy I’ve never met before, hell, 3 hours ago I had never even spoken to him.

A poker friend of mine Abe Limon (@limonpokeronce told me “I don’t believe in instinct or gut feelings. To me, its just the information you have gathered and processed to come up with a decision that feels right”. I’ve lived by that idea ever since he told it to me. Being able to rationalise my “gut feelings” has helped me immensely in my profession. In this decision my gut was telling me to “go for it”, I can tell you all the reasons but I think in the end there was one point that stuck out to me. I was told by someone close to Iain that would like to remain anonymous that Iain had mentioned; “it was getting a little scary and I think I’m going to have to end it all”. That statement struck a cord with me, although unsure if it was in regards to the squatting, life in general or maybe both, I didn’t like the sound of it. It sounded like a guy who was at the end after doing all that he could. Homeless in the Hills of Adelaide during the winter, that’s pretty rough.

The biggest problem for me was the $40,000 would be most of my cash reserves. On top of that, I had money in accounts all over the place, I’d not have been able to get it out in time. Although not broke, the pressure would have been on. Fortunately, another member of the public had also heard of the story and wanted to help. This person wishes to remain anonymous but without that person this would never have happened.

I slept on it, admittedly though I was favouring doing it. I’m glad I slept though (wasn’t my best nights sleep) but the sleep I got gave me a much clearer mind. I explained to the other contributor that I would be stretching myself to thin in the interim. After some back and forward it was agreed that I would pay $10,000 today with the remaining $10,000 to be paid back to the other financial contributor. Not only did this person put trust in Iain but me too, serious show of faith in destiny, cool stuff. The pressure was off and we were both happy to roll the dice.

The rates were paid and the auction was cancelled. There were apparently close to 200 people that turned up to the auction only to be told “the auction is cancelled”. Now, I know some people’s ideas on ‘squatting’ legitimacy will vary. Thats ok, nothing wrong with differing views but the laws/ loophole is there and there is nothing illegal about what Iain is doing. For fucks sake the guy is keeping a 126 year old, 2 bedroom cottage from falling in on itself and he has a roof over his head. The guy is a little eccentric, but you’d have to be to squat I’d say. From what I know, I think some people are a little angered about it, but I think in time this will settle and they will be pleasantly surprised with how the property looks in very little time at all.

Where to from here, well, long way to go yet. There is nothing formal between the three parties at this stage. We will form some action plans after the media have calmed down. In terms of Iain becoming the rightful owner of the place, he is going to be applying for what is called “adverse possession”. Its a bit of a grey area but in a nutshell if you live in a place for a significant amount of time (different state to state), without consent from the owner of the property, you can claim title. In this case the owner died in the home, the next of kin has not been able to be reached/ they haven’t come forward, therefore, Iain is staying in the home without consent. In South Australia its 15 years, he has been there for over 1 year already, so it could be 14 more years of waiting before we see the application rubber stamped. It could be sooner though too, time will tell.

Some people think I’m crazy, this doesn’t prove that. Truth is I’ve always been crazy, but this is some kind of story and to be honest, I want to be a part of the journey, even if it costs me $20,000. Money comes and goes but experiences and stories are with you for life.

Stay tuned on this one, there is more to come I’m sure! Leave me a comment on what you think about squatting or any other part of this story.

Cheers Mac

Links and references for more background:

https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-34.9743087,138.756443,3a,75y,300.51h,82.48t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sSTRc8QVEACfh6QnPDkPpUQ!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

https://www.lawyersconveyancing.com.au/encyclopaedia/adverse-possession/

http://tenplay.com.au/channel-ten/the-project/extra/season-7/squatting

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/adelaide-hills-squatter-in-final-bid-to-try-and-stay-in-his-cottage-before-hammer-falls/news-story/6fd121139ba6fb5e020353c2f8ef177d

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/squatter-iain-herridge-allowed-to-stay-at-abandoned-property-after-gambler-pays-council-rates/news-story/2db49771200a6535f7be3d48fb82e21a?from=public_rss&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-26/adelaide-hills-squatter-iain-herridge-debt-paid-by-investors/7447154

 

Money update

Money update

I’ve been putting this off because, I thought it was going to take a lot of digging around as I haven’t updated my balance before Vietnam. That and the fact that I knew the financial slide had continued for me overall. Like most things that you procrastinate about, it wasn’t nearly as bad once I got stuck into it. Your head has this amazing way to make a mountain out of a mole hill at times, the sooner you rip and get it done the better.

Anyway, enough bullshit, on to the dollars. As I hinted the new plot on the graph shows a continued decline in profits. This doesn’t bode well for my dreams of sailing on a yacht in the Caribbean, next time Australia play the Windies over there. Although it can’t be seen, things have started to turn around in the last week and a bit. The lowest point my balance got to was about $1,000 less than what you see, a few things have really started to click for me in the racing markets. Yesterday I had my best day there with $350 netted, I won’t be declaring it a winner until I can put a month of consistency together, I have a lot to learn still, I’m doing that, but I’m “quietly confident” that its coming together for me.

Cricket is ramping up with the WT20 competition starting in India a couple of nights ago. I thought I was going to stay up all through the night for the competition, but fuck it, I really don’t enjoy the format enough to put myself through the pain. I will trade the earlier games that start at 7.30pm as they are ideal, but the 12.00am start can do one. Obviously, key matches I will stay up for, but at the moment in the pool stages I couldn’t give a shit.

I just want to make mention of the people that have helped me on this journey. In the past I’ve been focusing a lot of energy on people that are negative towards what I’m doing, trying to change their perception, I couldn’t give a flying fuck any more. The people I want to focus on are the people that have helped and encouraged me. I could do the standard “you know who you are” thing, but instead, going to list a bunch of people and how they’ve helped:

  • Becca – Hasn’t been easy for her I know, but she always backs me, I love you for that.
  • Peter Clark – Supported me in a number of ways throughout the years and on this venture hes been no different.
  • Greg Millar – Backed me 110% when I started playing poker full-time, without his support wouldn’t be doing this now.
  • Tristan, Robbie & Dave – Great lads, great support, great sounding board when things are tough.
  • The parents, they never know exactly what I’m doing but they’re never worried, usually more intrigued than anything.
  • @muller234 – Top bloke, always supported me, there from the start, has similar goals and dreams, great for a laugh. Pretty smart for a Geordie too.
  • @back2layhorses – Again, there from the start, chasing his dream too, always checks in to see how things are going, top bloke. Who would have thought England had so many champion blokes living there?
  • @tradermatt106 – There isn’t too many more people that have put time into me in terms of trading cricket. If you’re not following this guy, you should be.
  • @Relaxer_ – Seriously sharp operator and has put in a bunch of time to me. Listening to my rants and calming me down, thanks for the help legend.
  • @aussieruled – Not trading on the level of Matt & Relaxer, but certainly the first guy to show me around the markets, also been a great voice of reason over the time.
  • @DownIsTheNewUp_ – Legend guy, pretty much keeps to himself, but been very influential for me, always very succinct.
  • @Trooa – Don’t let the class clown act fool you, this guy is sharp. Another real supporter and been a huge help in my journey, cheers JT.
  • @leantothewind – This guy is a champion too, making his way, similar dreams to mine and he is having a crack. Hoping to be able to nail this caper together.
  • @Lost_MyProphets – After an honest post of mine, this guy reached out to me and has poured in a bunch of time to help me, super guy, very appreciative.
  • @CaanBerryTrader – Not as accessible as some others, his content is very good and has been a source to turn to when things haven’t been right.
  • @Tennisratings – I don’t do a lot of tennis these days, but this guy is a out and out champion, always makes time for you and very supportive, thanks Dan.
  • @day25 – Steve is a good egg, always makes time for you and has been a supporter of my blog. His blog has always been a place to go bury my head when times are tough.
  • Bunch of boys from Twitter; Tom, RKM79, Jesse, Lenny, Dan Armo, Charchandrick Bets, Tommy, GreenForm, Oruas, AngryRay, John Millward, Lix, Fenners, Onlyfoolsgamble, Sim, Paul, few others I may have missed. Supporters and good for a laugh.
  • All readers from Facebook; All the comments of support when I post, does mean a lot and thanks a ton. Special mention to the crew in “Derolicked politics”.

All these people have helped back me and I really appreciate that. It doesn’t go unnoticed and its very humbling to have great support. I must not lose sight of the support, for every hater there is 50 supporters in my life 🙂

$1060, account balance +$7116.94

Cheers Luke

Betfair trading profit and loss graph.

Betfair trading individual trades
My plays and trades since my last post. A lot of red, but things are turning around for me, expect to see a big bounce back in the next few weeks.

 

 

 

 

Self sabotage 101

Self sabotage 101

I had another blow out. So disappointing, going away on holiday tomorrow and didn’t really need this. Up until then it was a low-key but profitable week; picking up about $600 of profit. I had picked up where I left off on my horse racing edge, working on getting my sample size bigger and things were going along nicely. Yesterday I attempted to trade some Australian races, but the liquidity was so terrible that the markets were far too volatile. I got stuck with one lay, the race jumped before I could hedge, you know what happens, the thing comes from 2nd last to win. Things went downhill from there.

I attempted to mug bet my way out of the hole, but the hole got deeper and deeper. In the end I busted a bank, giving back the money I had won during the week and more. It’s disappointing, these are mistakes I’ve made before and it certainly makes you second guess your ability to progress in this industry. Maybe I’m destined to fail like everyone seemingly expects me to.

I hate to admit that I could be so foolish as to do this, it’s embarrassing really, I was a complete whale punter yesterday, sad shit. It’s so embarrassing that I didn’t want to write this blog post about it. But when I set out to do this, it was going to be “warts and all”, no hiding the truth from people, besides, in the future these are the posts that may help someone on their journey and that’s half the reason I’m doing it.

There were positives to come out of it all. Yesterday was the first proper realisation that this is going to send me back to “the real world” if I don’t plug this leak. With my other blow outs I either blamed the market, the player, team or that fucking horse that came from 2nd last, (jokes, not it’s fault at all, this is on me). I would rationalise it by saying “I could afford to take a bit of an extra risk there”. But this is it, I’m making a stand on this sort of shit. No more, this loss will be a “watershed moment” for me and I will be making some changes to help stop this from happening again.

As I fuck shit up, rules are added to the list. I’ve added a safety net for these sorts of mishaps, I won’t be having any more than $500 in my Betfair account at any one time. Any additional winnings will be withdrawn, while I will top up the account if required after any losses. When I played poker full-time I had a session limit I was prepared to lose. Although in theory I shouldn’t digress from my most effective strategies when winning or losing, the fact is that when I lose a “significant amount”, my head get’s a little fucked up and I’m not thinking with complete clarity. The next rule is pretty simple; don’t, fucking, do that, again!

Leaving tomorrow at 9am for Vietnam. I’ll enjoy this holiday with my beautiful girl, eat great food, drink great beer, see great things and meet some great people. When I’m back I will be head down bum up on turning things around. I’m getting closer to getting this all together everyday, either that or I’m massively in denial. I’m sure this post will help all the haters, haha, fuck. It’s not the end of the road, nor the end of the world.

-$1750.06 on the week, account balance +$8176.94

Cheers Luke

Betfair trading profit and loss graph, down swinging.

Such a disappointing mistake towards the end of the week. Have to learn to stop this or the dream will be over before I know it.
Things were going along slowly and nicely this week before I had an absolute blow out. It’s so disappointing that I wasn’t even doing what I wanted to do, I was mug punting. Disappointing.

 

Wasted!

Wasted!

Guess it was always going to happen; me getting white girl wasted at some stage in Melbourne. But even I couldn’t have imagined an end to a night like this. I guess the 8.5% Belgian beers and shots of Tequila were always going to turn a night out into a nightmare.

Things started to get tricky when we (Bec and I) couldn’t work out how to open the security coded door at the place where we were staying. Eventually, we decided that we would get an Uber to the closest motel (who stays in motels any more by the way). Upon arriving, the night started to repeat on me as I lay slumped on the side walk spewing mostly on the footpath, but occasionally on my shoulder.

Bec went to find us a room; no dice! The disappointing news must have given me one of those “drunken moments of clarity”, as sharpened up to help resolve the issue at hand. I spotted a fire hose in the car park of said motel; I then used that hose to clean out the mouth and clean off the shoulder.

“Stop you can not use that, put that down”. I turned around to see a small Asian man swiftly moving towards me through the car park. Obviously, I didn’t appreciate his view towards me using the hose, because; I paused for a moment before turning the tap from low to high and drenching him. He eventually got to me and we continued to wrestle for control of the hose; by now we are both saturated. Bec is now yelling for us to “stop” and getting rogue sprays from the fire hose.

After agreeing to turn off the hose together and relinquishing control, Bec and I returned to where we were staying. After speaking to the owner of the place, it was so simple; the code had been put in wrong and the “C” for “clear” needed to be pushed before putting in the correct code. So fucking simple, if only we knew.

With this story in mind; you can appreciate how little I was involved with the markets this week. I did end up making a little while watching the last few days of the 2nd Test between New Zealand and Sri Lanka. I have also been taking advantage of the Bet365 Big Bash Promotion as I mentioned I would be last week. Sadly, I have had maybe 5 or 6 Hi-Bat bets and failed to land one, so that hasn’t been as lucrative as I’d hoped, possible change of tactic coming up there.

Also, a Christmas gift for us both. 3 months ago I joined ING Bank after a friend referred me to them. Basically this account is fucking unreal, it gives you:

  1. 2% cash back on ALL “PayWave” transactions
  2. No ATM fee’s, regardless of which bank or which ATM (including the massive rort independent ones that charge $2.50+)
  3. No monthly account keeping fee

Also, at the moment, if you join up with my little code DXU057, we both get $75 once you open the account and deposit $1,000 into it; Merry Christmas to us! It’s so fucking good, a bank paying you to use your own money, instead of charging you to access your own money.

Only thing you have to do to get the above is make sure $1,000 a month goes into it, I just have an automatic $500 a fortnight that goes into it and PayWave the shit out of anything under $100 to get the cashback, also then if I caught short for cash can withdraw from any ATM without being charged. I put a screenshot of the app below to show what I’ve made since opening it 3 months ago.

+$280 on the week, account balance +$10738

Cheers Luke

Profit/loss from cricket trading this week

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ING Bank savings account is the best
This is the ING Bank app on your phone. It tracks your “rewards & benefits”. As you can see I’ve had $5.30 in ATM fees that they have paid for me and $35.26 of PayWave 2% rebates so far. Totalling $40.56 of payments they have reimbursed into my account for me. I mostly have cash on me so haven’t had a lot of ATM withdrawal reimbursements, but if you don’t lik carrying cash; I reckon savings there would tick up pretty quick. Obviously not huge money but fuck it, $120 a year let’s say for doing nothing more than I would be anyway, plus now we both get an extra $75 each if you join now with my code DXU057, snap, snap! Merry Christmas.

Match odds on back burner for lopsided Tests.

Match odds on back burner for lopsided Tests.

Only two matches I was interested in last week; New Zealand v Sri Lanka and Australia v West Indies. Whilst on the subject, how fucked in the head are the schedulers to have the Windies playing Boxing Day here? For fucks sake, would you might having New Zealand playing in our premier tests of the year? This isn’t my book talking either, my local is the Gabba. As a cricket nut this is not a good look for the heart of the summer, embarrassing actually.

On to the important shit; the gambling. As the title suggests, I looked at these two tests, looked at the prices and said “this blows”. The Aussie test was a pure write off, I like to lay shorties like that usually but sadly I didn’t see Australia getting out past the $1.12 quote and maybe apart from once when I think I saw them at $1.15 they didn’t. The lack of market confidence in the ‘Caribbean Clown Clan’ was shown when on the first morning they had Australia 3/121, Warner and Smith in the sheds, but still Australia were $1.13. New Zealand on the other hand seemed like their price could drift so there was a bit of interest in that ‘match odds’ market.

Really though, most of my attention was on run lines. I focused on player, total, 5/10/15 over run lines for both of the tests. Shits me how in Australia we can’t bet on ‘unders’ for run lines in matches; involving or played in Australia. Its a stupid fucking rule from Cricket Australia to try and stop fixing. Shows how out of touch these peanuts are with controlling issues around fixing. The following example was given to me the other day, when discussing this issue with a guy on Twitter; “how much would you have to pay Warner to throw it away $500k? $700k? Then to break even you need to get $700k or $900k on just to cover that payment to him, which bookie will let you on for that on a run line bet?”

It was another great week, new weekly record by some way; but mostly it was good to be able to read the game over a solid sample and make my decisions on which way to go. Angelo Mathews fucked me twice, the second one was much worse than the first, 2.5 run loser second up. I adjusted my stakes based on what I perceived my edge to be on each bet. It paid dividends which was nice. Also I’ve stepped up my usual position sizes up as my roll is now 3 times what it was when I started.

Big Bash starting this week; I haven’t had much success in the shorter forms of the game up until now, mind you I’ve been dealing with some horrific leagues. Seems like the BBL is a license to print money, makes me nervous though. It seems expected that everyone wins, what a chump if I don’t have success in it. I won’t be doing anything for the first few matches apart from taking advantage of Bet365’s in-play promo. Heading to Melbourne early tomorrow morning for a family Christmas party. I don’t want to think about the drama if I’m on my phone every second checking prices and scores. Truth is I don’t want to either, be good to get away on a mini holiday. That said; I’ll be placing a pre match bet and then one live free shot and leaving it.

+$4,996 on the week, account balance +$10458

Cheers Luke

Weekly profit and loss from cricket trading

All individual plays on cricket trading this week.
All the individual plays I made this week, all cricket from memory this week.

“Old habits, something, something”.

“Old habits, something, something”.

They say that “old habits die hard” and I’m a walking, talking example of this. Hands up if you’re like me and learn most lessons the hard way? It’s a shit situation right? On one hand, you have all these motivational quotes saying “don’t give up”, “failure is a step towards success”, all the while, you are getting burnt with these failures and wondering “am I just in denial”? In the gambling world, this can get fucking expensive, fucking quick.

Despite every sane cell in my brain telling me not to; I went back to horse racing this week, what a masochist. I’m fearful of how this chapter ends. Last time; I nearly killed the girlfriend, I had her hiding all the sharp objects in the house and locking the door to the balcony. I’ve basically, never had any success in this cunt of a sport, be it gambling or trading.

Why? I hear you asking. In short, I’ve developed 3 edges which I have been paper testing for the last six weeks. That alone means I’ve certainly come along way since my last foray into this market. I also used very small stakes when flicking over to try with real “moola”. Again, this gave me confidence that I was taking this seriously, last time my over staking was wild. I had a good start to my real money trades and time will tell now how it pans out long-term, fingers crossed, it’s a market I’d like to crack.

Good variance gods were shining brightly out of my ass crack this week. Usually, gamblers, traders, this blog is full of horror stories about how if some “pure cunt” had have just caught the ball everything would have been all right. This week I was on the pants boner side of variance on a number of occasions.

Hail Mary – GB v Det

GB v Det - Hail Mary
That pass and catch netted me $300 extra dollars than I would have got had GB gone on to lose by less than 3, which it looked like they were going to do. Good variance 🙂
King Kohli hits a boundary to win my overs bets
King Kohli also helped me out this week. I had 3 different overs bets on run line bets after 70 overs in their second innings. With one ball left before the time expired, King Kohli drilled a boundary to win 2 bets, was a $400 swing. Good variance.
Good variance when betting on cricket unders in India v South Africa
More good variance! I could afford just 1 run in 18 balls, get in there! Was a big swing for me, had a lot of under 40.5 and 42.5 too, but these half run winners gave me wood. Good variance.
How woman feel when their partners love sport or gambling on sport.
Saw this on Facebook and it was definitely something I can relate to. I try not to let losses be noticeable, but sometimes it’s hard, just thought it was funny and threw it in, haha.

Finally, thanks to everyone thats having a read each week. I have some really filthy things in the pipeline for this blog. I’m pretty excited by what is coming up, will be good fun, should give some clear insight in to what I’m doing on a day to day basis. Stay tuned and if you ever have questions get on to me on Twitter @lukeamac.

+$618 on the week, account balance +$5462

Cheers Luke

Weekly profit and loss from my trading on Betfair and with the corporate bookmakers.

Each trade I made this week in excel spreadsheet.
Each trade-by-trade in Excel sheet. Putting in here because I’m using a mixture of corporates and Betfair now.
Betfair trading on horses pre race.
First night back trading the nags on Betfair. Some small amounts, but really working hard on the consistent little 5-10% gains.