Progressing, but another dint to the confidence.

This has not been a good week for the team at Gamble Gambol. My friend and side kick Jamie made one expensive misstep and I turned a winning week into a losing week in one foul day. I’m learning, I’m progressing, I think or is that me in denial? This is the problem, you think you are doing a lot of things right, but then you make these mistakes you’ve made before and you start second guessing yourself.

For me, the most part of the week was actually good. I was cruising along, I was up around $300 or 7% of my starting bank. Great stuff really. But that is really being focused on the results which is not something I’m big on. I like to instead look at the mechanics of the week and break down the plays I made more and how they can be improved. Focusing on process and not outcome.

Looking back over the week, there were problems even on the + $ days. I’ve set myself a bankroll now at the start of this week of $5,000. Off that, I have some maximum exposure limits per play, maximum losses off that exposure per play also. I broke those limits on a number of plays this week. For a reason unknown to me at this stage (could be anomaly or real reason for it) I start my sessions off with a loss, generally a big loss. I’m then scratching to get back for the session. I really need to plug the holes in my game if I’m going to make this what I want it to be. I’ll be listing details below and working profusely this week to fix those issues.

Pretty sure I’m not in denial, I’m making in roads, I’m doing a bunch of good things. I’ve been learning a lot, my skills are better, my knowledge is growing every day. I’ve been working with @adamchernoff on tennis and NFL. The guy has a wealth of knowledge, coming from a bookmaking background. In turn we are both using @Tennisratings (Daniel) spreadsheets which are sent out daily. They give a great profile on the player through statistics. Dan has also offered his assistance to look over some of my trades and help me improve. Very appreciative of that offer and will be taking him up on that this week.

The holes I must plug starting this week are:

  • Read this list before all trading sessions
  • Follow my liability rules strictly – have spreadsheet open
  • SELL LOSING POSITIONS
  • All trading at my desk in spare room
  • Thorough research before trading any match
  • More selective in which matches I trade

I’d be lying if I said I’m not disappointed, I am, but I can feel it, I can taste it, it’s so close. I just need to get a few things under control and I can make this happen, I can do this, but nothing good in life comes easy and this is testing me.

-$565 on the week account balance $4,335.

Cheers Luke

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Main wallet Betfair trading
Main Wallet trading loss from trading NFL, soccer, WTA tennis.
Australian wallet Betfair trading
Main Wallet trading loss from trading NFL, soccer, WTA tennis.

2 Steps Forward 10 Steps Back.

Let’s get something straight; this blog is not about only showing you the good parts. This isn’t a place where I will make you think that it’s all rainbows and lollipops, only showing winning trades etc. When shit fucks up, I will be the first to put my hand up and admit it. How else can you improve?

I’m such a prick to myself, I know I shouldn’t be doing what I do, but I do it. The man, the myth the legend, Caan Berry often talks about your mental state and how important it is to trading. I know that for the most part my mind is made for this stuff, but then there is those moments in the heat of the battle where I lose my fucking shit. I start over staking, I let my losses run too far, I don’t wait for the right entry points, I start guessing, I lose patience. There is tons to work on, I have to stop these things, I know I do, for god’s sake, Luke, stop, fucking, doing, these, things!

Luckily, I’ve been getting away with it. This gives me the chance to learn my lesson without having lost my money. I’ve tried telling myself to “stop doing those things”, but that’s simply not working. So, I’m going to take a leaf out of my good mate Jamie’s play book and set aside an actual trading balance. Along with that will come strict rules on my maximum liability per trade. These rules should help me remain in control and in-check in the heat of the battle.

+38 or so again, but these poor decisions are going to catch up with me if I don’t pull it together real quickly.

Cheers Luke

17-9

Getting it together trading Tennis.

Just a quickie from me; traded some matches yesterday, men and woman’s matches. Still making mistakes which is to be expected. For me, I’m best learning like the kid who touches the hot plate on the stove. When it costs me money or I see what I should have done in situ, I don’t forget that easy. I have some things to work on today, be back on it now for the afternoon in Japan.

Most of my focus is around not having any more/ many more $-60 trades. I had chances to do something in that trade and I should have too.

+39 on the day though, no complaints from me. I will work out my specific trading balance etc. soon, for now, just trading, learning, defining. Soon enough will be setting some goals and tracking progress with graphs, love watching graphs grow.

Cheers Luke

tennis-16-9

Game changer, needed that!

Sport and life aren’t aren’t that different, sometimes you just need that one point to turn it all around. You need yourself a game changer. For me it was some time away from all I had learnt in the last 2 or 3 months. I had crammed all this information in and hadn’t taken some time to process it and calculate the most appropriate steps to my own success. Instead I was copying a little from here, borrowing a little from there, half doing this, half doing that, stopping that, starting this, I was an erratic fucking mess. Stop. Put down the mouse. Think.

Whilst on my sabbatical,  I realised a couple of really important things; firstly, I don’t have to master horse racing like the great Caan Berry and others before him. Although for many this is the ‘holy grail’ of trading, it’s not for me, yet, anyway. Secondly; I love sport, like, I really love sport, all sport. So why not focus my attention in this space? I now have the chance to turn my incredible consumption of sport into a production of money while doing it? Haha. the wife will never be able to go crook at me for watching a sport again, fucking oath! Lastly; I need to have a much more defined concept of my edges, entry/exit points, targets & testing against historical data.

With that in mind, I’ve embarked on defining my edges in each sport, focusing on; cricket, tennis, NFL, AFL & Rugby League. Included in that definition will be finding those compression entry points in each market along with the exit after that ‘gunpowder like’ explosion. The target is an interesting/dangerous one. I’m sure there is many people that will say having targets for trading is not a good idea. I know in a poker session a ‘target’ is a big no, no. In poker the focus is more around making good decisions in the heat of the battle. The moment you are no longer doing that it’s time to stop playing. However, I still have in my mind what I would consider to be an appropriate win in the game I’m playing depending on some factors; i.e. game size, player styles, starting investment. For that reason, I have decided to start building some of those thoughts into my trading. Historical testing of your angles and edges is self explanatory and a no brainer; how do you know if it’s profitable if you haven’t tested it against a big data sample?

So, how is it all going Luke? Better, much better, I’ve actually still lost a little bit of money, but I’m not concerned, for the first time since starting, I’m now entering the market at the right time more than the wrong time. First time that has happened since learning about this concept. Now to tidy up a few other issues, set some goals and as my black rap friends say; “GET THE SHIT POPPIN”!

Cheers Luke

Bit of time off is needed! Poker time!

I’ve decided to take a step back, some time off is what I need right now. I’ve been at this like a bull at a gate for the last 2 months and it’s taken me to breaking point and back again. I’m like that though, very impatient and impulsive at times. I want everything to happen yesterday, especially when I know I’m on to something good. Right now though, the best thing for me and my trading adventure is to take a step back and focus on some other things in my life.

I ain’t quitting, it nearly broke me (mentally not financially), but all things that have been great in my life have done the same. I just want to step back from it all, look it a little more objectively and start to build a plan on how I’m going to attack it when I do come back into it. I like to have a plan, goals, structure, just randomly clicking buttons without tracking my success is shit to me.

I’m talking weeks, not months, I’ll be back on deck within the week or so, just a week off or so, find some clarity and go again. In that time I will also be reading a book by Daniel Weston http://www.harriman-house.com/book/view/731/lifestyle/daniel-weston/mastering-tennis-trading/ so I will let you all know how that goes. I follow Dan on Twiiter (@tennisratings), seems a very knowledgable lad in the space, so we’ll see what it uncovers.

Also been talking with, @MrUnknownTrader, again, smart guy with some good insight and suggestions for me moving forward. It’s hard you know, this trading stuff is a very secretive world. Don’t get me wrong, I understand why, people are shitting themselves that if their edges/ angles are revealed then they won’t be as profitable, fine, understood. What pisses me off though is how you can then sell books and video’s? Take poker, because I have experience in it, there is also many similarities. In poker, there is tons of books and videos, most are fucking shit, it takes little time to find the ones with substance. Fuck, I’ve had the best players in the world tell me what to read to start beating the game. So not only did the author publish a book that tells you how to beat it, but players that have built their edge in the game from that book also tell you to read it. Why aren’t they all secretive and buying copies of the book and burning them so no one can read it?

Most people are stupid, it’s true, if you have ever worked with people you will know this. Just because a book or video is out there that tells people how to do something, that doesn’t mean they can then apply it. People have written books on how to beat blackjack through basic card counting principles, are casino’s going broke from people playing perfect strategy and card counting? No, they aren’t. From what I have seen, the industry of Betfair Trading is mostly filled with content that politely, I could say is, well, I won’t say, I don’t want to be rude. But it starts with fucking and it ends with shit. The cost of some of these courses and things too, give us a break would you? We were born at night, it wasn’t last night.

If anyone has any suggestions of content that is worth reading/ watching, I’m all ears, I’m also happy to be proven wrong. But at this stage, anything of worthy note has been very limited.

Cheers Luke

Back on the path to success!

After a rocky few days, I’m back on the path to success. It’s well documented how monumental my fuck ups have been in the last little bit, last night was the confidence shot in the arm I needed. My selection process was back, decision making was much better and my discipline was there.

I didn’t end up with huge, money last night, all for one play that cost me a full unit. But green is green and last night just cemented in my mind that this can be done and lucrative. Played around with some more tennis last night too, I’m yet to have an unsuccessful trade there, just playing around, sample is so small it’s laughable though.

Cheers Luke

Punter or trader?

I come from a punting background, I’m not a pure degenerate though, I have pure “degen” mates, I’m qualified in spotting the characteristics. At heart though I’m willing to take a punt on something, a calculated risk if you like. As long as I have an edge I’ll take a chance on it. Last night I was making my second ever tennis trade and found the punter taking over the trader inside me. Was I right or was I wrong to do what I did?

It was the Fish v Lopez match, for those that are mentally challenged and or helping ISIS fight the infidels in Syria, this was in the US Open. I had entered the market at $2.00 when Lopez went down 15-40 while serving. His price was around $1.35 at the start of the service game. I figured if he could pull out one point, he’d shorten, I could lower my liability and then let the trade run how ever I liked from there.

Fast forward, after a number of little trades (I’m only learning so small $10 stakes and less) I now have a book that shows roughly $6 if Lopez wins, -$3 if Fish wins the match. Let me make it clear that at no stage had I intended to let this run out with the book looking like that. My intentions were to exit the market for green across the board. That was until there was a major fundamental change happening in front of my eyes. Fish was injured.

This guy was literally playing on one leg, he couldn’t run, he could barely get to the ball, especially on drop shots etc. He was battling so hard. One shot on the baseline he moaned loudly as he had to reach for the ball, this guy can’t win like this, can he?

Some will read and laugh; Luke, for fucks sake, you had $3 on the line, who cares, let it run. But those with that attitude miss the point completely. As my under 13’s cricket coach used to say at training “practice here how you will play in the middle.” Usually it was with a few swear words and mostly directed at me. I thought I was such a hero for smashing every bowler that ran in at training, only to get out in the middle on Saturday and defend every ball that got bowled to me, retiring for 3 off 45 balls. Anyway, I digress, the point is, I want to approach this situation the same when I have $3000 on the line as I do when I have $3 on the line.

Tennis trading guru’s, what was the right thing to do here? Please let me know, it was an interesting little spot, might not come up a whole lot, but I’m sure it will come up again.

Cheers Luke

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