Been working on some other projects of late, on of them is Punt Pod. As the highly creative name suggests, its a free podcast where we chat sport and specifically punting on it. We do have some guests lined up too, with a focus on those that love a bet and ideally a beer. Some of the guests are famous, some will be and some not at all, but should be some fun to hear their stories. We will be doing our (both co-hosts) best bets each pod and thanks to TopSport.com.au we have $100 each to put on our best of the pod with all proceeds going to a charity each quarter. We’re still looking for the first charity to be the beneficiary of our millions of winnings. If you have a charity that you would like to offer up please contact us at:
I’m still here 10 months on. Been many times where I thought I wouldn’t be and many times where I had to tell myself “I would be”. This far in I understand I still don’t know everything, still don’t have the consistency or stake levels I would like to have, but I’ve well exceeded my wildest expectations so far. Originally I thought if I can make $40,000 in my first year and get paid while learning, great! To make $75,000 in 10 months, crazy stuff.
My penultimate post, possibly anyway. I haven’t posted for ages as the motivation to do so has waned. The reasons I originally started this blog were; to be accountable and to show the path I went down to get to where ever I got to. In my absolute trading infancy blog posts from pro guys were what assured me that I wasn’t about to travel an impossible path. These trading guns weren’t savants, they were just ordinary people that worked hard to build edges in the game. Whether people learned what to do or what not to do, I hoped my journey may help others in the future. As for the accountability, I track my wins and my losses to the cent and I don’t give a fuck if I look stupid anymore. I used to use the fear of looking like an absolute stooge in the public forum as a motivation to “follow the rules”. It worked for the early stages, but as I’ve learnt more, I’ve understood that being wrong and looking like a stooge at times is all a part of it.
Following on from looking like a stooge, “What I learned Losing a Million Dollars” had some great stuff in there that’s really stuck with me. One thing Jim Paul talks about is do you want to be a “prophet or make profit”? Some people get more wrapped up in being right than they do of making money. This has terrible flow on effects including “personalising losses”. It definitely challenged my thinking, made me aware of this thought process and I’m working on completely removing it from my psyche. I’m trading for one reason, profit. I’ll still share some thoughts on my Twitter handle @lukeamac but I’m going to start winding down my blog and focusing on profit.
I’ll do a wrap up of the first 12 months when I get there and then after that, I don’t know if I’ll post again. Never say never, but they certainly won’t be frequent and may not be trading specific. Since my last post though I’ve had a great run, think it’s been about 5 or 6 weeks and my trading is becoming more and more efficient which is pleasing. Took me 10 months, but worked out I didn’t have to plug in my numbers into an online charting tool too, Excel will do it for you. What a noob. Anyway, new looking graph below but it charts the journey in its truest form.
After the anger subsided, I felt relieved, finally, the bubble burst and I lost. Not to say I hadn’t lost on random games in the last few months, but week on week, month on month I was just stacking it up. The pressure was building on me, I was getting erratic and I knew it. I bought a bunch of books, of all 10 titles I bought “What I learned losing a million dollars” by Brendan Moynihan jumped out at me. Almost as if I knew I was getting wild and wanted to help protect what I have achieved in this first 9 months of trading.
It’s not as if I wanted to lose, but it was inevitable, the way in which I lost it though was avoidable and that’s where the anger came from. I remember when I used to come home early from a poker session sometimes and Bec would know usually I had done my balls. “Did you play bad or did run bad”? she would ask. Knowing that if I lost playing bad I’d be upset with myself. In fact, when I had played great poker and just got unlucky I was rarely upset (on the back end of a 4 month break even stretch those sessions started to take their toll too but for 99% of the time I was fine). It was the bad play where I used to relive the hand countless times and think about how or what I should have done better. I think its the fact that the mistake is often so elementary and one you’ve made before that pisses you off.
Over confidence and the “invincibility cloak” activated. Really that’s all I can put it down too, the fact that I started to believe I was going to be able to dig myself out of anything. Everything I’ve touched has turned to gold of late and I started getting loose. What started as a small investment with some hedges in place on Mexico against Chile turned into a monster $3,000loss after I compounded the error by trying to buy my way out of trouble. It wasn’t just the fact I was betting where I have no edge, but I chased, tut tut, naughty boy.
Money lost, nothing lost, confidence lost everything lost. It’s amazing how quickly confidence comes and goes. With those errors came back questions about my lack of judgement in the moment, as well as concerns on discipline and abilities to learn from my mistakes. These were issues I’ve dealt with firstly in poker but trading sport too. I’ve always considered myself a very astute bankroll/ exposure limit manager. I remember seeing people in for $1500, $2000, $3000 in a $2/$3 game of cards and wonder where their limit was. I mean, those games don’t run deep enough that you can ever get that sort of money back in a session, not to mention you ain’t thinking right when you that far down the well. I always limited myself to 2 buy-ins per session with a third available if the game was crazy hot and there were whales throwing good money after bad. In fact I saw it as a big edge I had over my competitors on the felt. They didn’t know how not to lose. By that I mean when they lost, they lost big, when I lost, I lost small. The same principle is helpful in sports too in my opinion.
One quick war story, the one that got away. Missed a big payday the other night, I was fucking spewing. I had a theory that seemed fine but sadly the theory didn’t play out in practice. I’ve attached some screenshots so you can see how things progressed. The short of the long was I had a nice green level book in the Manly v Penrith game a couple of weekends ago. Manly scored probably their 4th try to go out by 20 early in the second half. At Brooky, 20 in front, Penrith playing pretty average, but still, 35 mins to go. Haven’t seen this volume before, but someone comes in and lumps on $25,000 at $1.06 on Manly. Penrith get a scrum inside attacking 30 and I decided to lay $5,000 of the now $12,000 left with some of my green, Mansour over in the corner. When the margin got back to 10 and Manly got 2 repeat sets I decided to hedge at $1.10. Manly seemed to have settled to me and I picked up a few ticks, if they went over in the 4th set, prices would be $1.02. They didn’t score and although I had plans to re-enter, that wasn’t practical as the liquidity isn’t there like it was when the person lumped at $1.06. I hedged for $1,000 profit but Penrith went on to score 27 unanswered points in 35 mins to win the game and I missed out on $3,000 of green. Dirty. Mind you, not as dirty as the backer at $1.06, literally from the moment he backed them, Manly never scored another point.
I’m running hot at the moment. It’s been that good that I’m expecting every game or every weekend to be the weekend where it all turns to shit. Weirdly plays on your mind when you’re running so hot. It’s a battle in my head of not getting too cocky, thinking I’m invincible and not missing spots through fear of having losing bets. Weird one, been through it with poker too, the mind is a fucked up thing at times, pessimistic when winning and losing, weird.
Was a nice solid return to work this week, after giving $20,000 to someone in the Adelaide Hills I’ve never met before. Could have been a $5,000+ weekend this weekend but I butchered the fuck out of the game yesterday. I liked the Knights + but the Tariq Sims news spooked me. My ties to the team growing up also mean I need to be doubly sure when I pull the trigger in Knights games. I sat it out and traded it live in play instead. Fucking horror show my book was by the end of the game. I think if Knights won it was -$2,600 and if Eels won -$1100. Fair to say I was very lucky the last try wasn’t scored, saved me $1,500. My timing was just fucked, I flipped my book twice and it was close to the worst time I could have, brutal.
Most people know that I’m not convinced on the whole ‘kids thing’, when I was a lot younger I thought it was a good idea. As time goes by it scares me if I’m honest. I’ve heard both sides of the argument and at this stage I’m 60/40 towards “hell no”. In order to see if I’m any good at looking after another life, we got a dog. He’s pretty cool, makes me laugh, but the little fucker just loves pissing and shitting everywhere, should have called him Nate Myles. At least babies wear nappies, thats one tick in their column.
As the title suggests, things continued to roll along. As I look back through my plays since the last blog entry, I notice that some of the reds are alarmingly 4 figures. They are offset by more green 4 figure sums, which is pleasing. That wasn’t a humble brag, more so, a point of reflection, it shows how my bankroll and bet sizes have significantly grown in 8 months. I used to tilt my tits off when I lost 4 figures. Twitter friends were desperately PM’ing the missus to get her to hide the sharp objects around the house. Now those occasions are saved for Richmond games. Fucking Richmond, don’t start me on those maggots please.
I purchased some new equipment a little while ago. Finally I’ve produced my first piece of non written content. TommyBet and JT will enjoy the subject of my first video. TommyBet might learn a thing or two if he isn’t too fried from Iron Maiden. His biggest shock will be that you don’t have to drive across the “boarder” to get set. It’s far from Hollywood quality, I’m pretty happy with it on a small budget, and limited previous editing skills. If you have any feedback on the video (embedded below) or questions on the topic, please get in touch, like to hear from you.
I will do a few more quick videos, just keen to get some content up and out as well as learning to use editing software. I have plans for a trading podcast and some cool video content I want to release. For me it’s about trying to work out how to best release everything without over lapping and more importantly making it easy for me as I’m lazy. That is all in the pipeline and foreseeable future, for now, few more little tips and tricks style videos while I piece it all together.
Minimal league with “rep round” just gone. Another piss poor attempt to revive non origin representative football. City v Country, give me a fucking break would you? That is the biggest piece of dog shit that game, its not used as a trial, so whats the point? Increased chance of injury to some of the most highly paid players in the league. There is no intensity, club games are more important to players, they go harder there, watch them there for fucks sake. Queensland have no “trial” and their setup seems to be, some what successful. Someone on Twitter said it best; “Aaron Gray scored 4 tries and he is not in the top 10 wingers for NSW”. Farce, drop it, move on, absolute garbage.
That said, attentions turned to AFL, entirely. Hello! AFL has come roaring back into the black this season with a 6-1 weekend. To be fair, it was a perfect 5-0 weekend, the last two bets were offset against each other. I think that one was a 18 point middle, missed by a fair way again. What was pleasing though, weekend before last, I finally drilled one in the Carlton v Essendon game, had $1000 per side on that one, paid for some of the VIG I’ve paid in middles up until now. I’ve attached a picture of my Unibet account below, be lying if I said that didn’t frustrate me, $140.25 of a requested $1500 bet accepted. The bet was a middle, it landed so $2500 or so went begging there. Anyway, I’ll land a big one soon enough, I’m sure.
Another very pleasing period has the graph going up at 90 degrees. NRL has been really flourishing early, I’m averaging $297 profit per game if I can maintain that pace (not sure if I can) will be a great winter. I feel very in tune with the sport, making a lot of really great decisions pre and in game. I haven’t tracked it but guessing; I’d say 25%/75% pre vs. in play. Even though it’s super muggy, I’ve been occasionally using the ‘cash out’ feature to my advantage. All the math freaks (@Palma) will lose their mind over that statement. Although it is a bit of an oxymoron, sometimes you have additional information during the game, that the in play algorithm doesn’t (i.e. injuries, weather changes). For this reason I think there is some edge in using that cash out feature, sparingly. My first preference is to lay it off on Betfair, sometimes those markets aren’t available on there though.
AFL hasn’t started so well, I’ve been scratching and scraping together some money in matches to limit the damage, but hasn’t been the best start. I think your perspective is important though, I know the systems in place there are strong as fuck. When AFL does start pulling its weight the upside is rather exciting. As I say, depends on your perspective, I think if other areas were struggling, be a tougher pill to swallow. AFL is just experiencing some variance, she’ll come good.
I’ve had more middles than Malcolm of late, still nothing, 0 from my last 23 +EV middles. It is starting to shit me to be honest. I think what tilts me the most; if I let the clearly wrong line run its course I’d be a millionaire by now. My middling woes couldn’t have been better summed up, than missing a 24 point middle by 5 goals in the VFL on the weekend. Funnily enough, I worked with a connection from Twitter to get set, each of us owning 50% of the middle. He bet at WA TAB in store, while I drove 35 mins across the border to get on in store at NSW TAB. We got great numbers and good prices, but again not even close. Pretty funny, we both bet $2k each, never met before, just get those good vibes off each other and each put trust in one another. His bet won and he shipped me the cash right away, I guess thats one of the ‘pros’ of putting yourself out there with blog etc, connections all over the place.
Savings account is up over $30k. Its nice to have the life roll growing steadily, even with week to week expenses. I’m hoping by the end of the football season to have the savings account over $70k. I do have one person who has some cash invested with me, they are entitled to a portion of my profits, I’m aiming for a 100% ROI by September. I still feel very comfortable that I can achieve that. I have personally guaranteed the investment, meaning at a minimum, come September, they will have their initial investment returned to them.
Thinking about going to Uni next year. I think I want to study to be an architect, any architects out there please ping me on social media or on here, would love to chat to you about it.
I’d like to leave you with a quote that stuck with me. With Kobe’s retirement came the many tributes and quotes from Kobe over his career. One I really liked was “I learned not to get too high and not to get too low”. I’d say I’m guilty of doing both of those things at times. I’m working on not being so much that way, seems pretty important for future sanity.
At the moment I’m posting when ever I want. I was doing it weekly, then was going to drop back to monthly but instead I’ll just post when I want to, no set timing. Considering I’m up and rolling at the moment I decided to go again. I did want to show off the new trading kit too. Delivered and installed last week, she’s a beauty.
The one that got away. Although results wise I picked up a nice net profit, there were a few games where I was left thinking “what if”. AFL ripped my nut sack out, I took the Kangaroo’s minus and ended up with huge CLV on that bet. I had a middle there also, needing the Roo’s between 32-39, up 42-0 I was in the queue waiting for the paying signal. I jumped to the Sharks v Titans and by the time I went back, the Demons were in front 50-58, “what the fuck has happened here”? The cunts didn’t cover, they nearly lost for fucks sake, taking with it another +EV middle. Think that’s 0 from my last 13. Was a little down on AFL over the weekend, but left dreaming of fistfuls of cash.
My success in the NRL rolled on this week. I missed a few spots, but I can’t complain, not only am I netting profit, but I’m beating lines and totals by some way and that bodes well. Good to have some sounding boards to chat to on Twitter. It’s the first full season punting on NRL where I chat to another bunch of fiends before I load up. Generally, I get a feel for the game and look to expose books in-play. Sometimes the algorithm they use is just way off. It just doesn’t account for some things that are crucial in my humble opinion.
Dabbled in some other markets I rarely touch. The NBA stuff was purely ‘arbing’ some games to rack up points in a current VIP Betfair competition. It worked out well, in the last week I doubled my points from 20k to 40k (cash value of around $200 per 10k points). In that time I managed to make $60 or so in the ‘arbs’ after commission, so well worth while. I layed Spieth at $1.30 right before he put it in the piss twice, so that was pleasing. The new mission control centre had its first foray into the horse racing markets too for a small net profit.
As I mentioned the new cockpit has been delivered and installed. I traded less than 15 races, however being able able to see so much more of the ladder length ways and viewing up to 9 runners at once compared to 3 was powerful. The sample is too small to be sure it will have a positive effect yet, but signs are good. Being a new environment, there is some adjusting to get used to, but once settled in I get the feeling it will pay for itself pretty quickly. I’ve thrown some pictures in below for you to check out.