Trading update & the new guy

Trading update & the new guy

I’m running hot at the moment.  It’s been that good that I’m expecting every game or every weekend to be the weekend where it all turns to shit. Weirdly plays on your mind when you’re running so hot. It’s a battle in my head of not getting too cocky, thinking I’m invincible and not missing spots through fear of having losing bets. Weird one, been through it with poker too, the mind is a fucked up thing at times, pessimistic when winning and losing, weird.

Was a nice solid return to work this week, after giving $20,000 to someone in the Adelaide Hills I’ve never met before. Could have been a $5,000+ weekend this weekend but I butchered the fuck out of the game yesterday. I liked the Knights + but the Tariq Sims news spooked me. My ties to the team growing up also mean I need to be doubly sure when I pull the trigger in Knights games. I sat it out and traded it live in play instead. Fucking horror show my book was by the end of the game. I think if Knights won it was -$2,600 and if Eels won -$1100. Fair to say I was very lucky the last try wasn’t scored, saved me $1,500. My timing was just fucked, I flipped my book twice and it was close to the worst time I could have, brutal.

Most people know that I’m not convinced on the whole ‘kids thing’, when I was a lot younger I thought it was a good idea. As time goes by it scares me if I’m honest. I’ve heard both sides of the argument and at this stage I’m 60/40 towards “hell no”. In order to see if I’m any good at looking after another life, we got a dog. He’s pretty cool, makes me laugh, but the little fucker just loves pissing and shitting everywhere, should have called him Nate Myles. At least babies wear nappies, thats one tick in their column.

Period 1: +$3,356.78

Period 2: +$6,106.08

Period 3+$2,849.68

Account balance +$41,804.37 (8 months and 1 week)

Cheers Mac

Profit and loss graph from my Betfair trading and bookmaker wagers.
Profit and loss graph from my Betfair trading and bookmaker wagers.

 

Betfair trades and sports bets since last financial update.
Betfair trades and sports bets since last financial update.
Morkie Maltese x Yorkshire Terrier Ned
Ned on the way home from where we got him out past Gympie. He’s a ‘Morkie’ (Maltese x Yorkshire Terrier).
Morkie Ned grabbing money when I was counting it.
Smart guy, grabbed the cash while I was counting it.

 

Graph up at 90 degrees

Graph up at 90 degrees

Another very pleasing period has the graph going up at 90 degrees. NRL has been really flourishing early, I’m averaging $297 profit per game if I can maintain that pace (not sure if I can) will be a great winter. I feel very in tune with the sport, making a lot of really great decisions pre and in game. I haven’t tracked it but guessing; I’d say 25%/75% pre vs. in play. Even though it’s super muggy, I’ve been occasionally using the ‘cash out’ feature to my advantage. All the math freaks (@Palma) will lose their mind over that statement. Although it is a bit of an oxymoron, sometimes you have additional information during the game, that the in play algorithm doesn’t (i.e. injuries, weather changes). For this reason I think there is some edge in using that cash out feature, sparingly. My first preference is to lay it off on Betfair, sometimes those markets aren’t available on there though.

AFL hasn’t started so well, I’ve been scratching and scraping together some money in matches to limit the damage, but hasn’t been the best start. I think your perspective is important though, I know the systems in place there are strong as fuck. When AFL does start pulling its weight the upside is rather exciting. As I say, depends on your perspective, I think if other areas were struggling, be a tougher pill to swallow. AFL is just experiencing some variance, she’ll come good.

I’ve had more middles than Malcolm of late, still nothing, 0 from my last 23 +EV middles. It is starting to shit me to be honest. I think what tilts me the most; if I let the clearly wrong line run its course I’d be a millionaire by now. My middling woes couldn’t have been better summed up, than missing a 24 point middle by 5 goals in the VFL on the weekend. Funnily enough, I worked with a connection from Twitter to get set, each of us owning 50% of the middle. He bet at WA TAB in store, while I drove 35 mins across the border to get on in store at NSW TAB. We got great numbers and good prices, but again not even close. Pretty funny, we both bet $2k each, never met before, just get those good vibes off each other and each put trust in one another. His bet won and he shipped me the cash right away, I guess thats one of the ‘pros’ of putting yourself out there with blog etc, connections all over the place.

Savings account is up over $30k. Its nice to have the life roll growing steadily, even with week to week expenses. I’m hoping by the end of the football season to have the savings account over $70k. I do have one person who has some cash invested with me, they are entitled to a portion of my profits, I’m aiming for a 100% ROI by September. I still feel very comfortable that I can achieve that. I have personally guaranteed the investment, meaning at a minimum, come September, they will have their initial investment returned to them.

Thinking about going to Uni next year. I think I want to study to be an architect, any architects out there please ping me on social media or on here, would love to chat to you about it.

I’d like to leave you with a quote that stuck with me. With Kobe’s retirement came the many tributes and quotes from Kobe over his career. One I really liked was “I learned not to get too high and not to get too low”. I’d say I’m guilty of doing both of those things at times. I’m working on not being so much that way, seems pretty important for future sanity.

+$5,864.02, account balance +$22,848.62

Cheers Luke

Profit and loss graph from my gambling and trading.
Profit and loss graph from my gambling and trading.
Betfair and bookmaker bets since last blog entry
Each individual play since my last blog entry, lots of green, pleasing.
Found some free newbie money on Betfair. Someone willing to lay Carlton at $2.90 next weekend.
Found some free newbie money on Betfair. Someone willing to lay Carlton at $2.90 next weekend.
$50 note in strippers ass crack
A friend of mine got this nice little message on a $50 note from the ATM. Lewl.
NSW TAB tickets on VFL match
Traveled 35 mins across the QLD/NSW border to get down on the best number with NSW TAB.

 

Up and rolling

Up and rolling

At the moment I’m posting when ever I want. I was doing it weekly, then was going to drop back to monthly but instead I’ll just post when I want to, no set timing. Considering I’m up and rolling at the moment I decided to go again. I did want to show off the new trading kit too. Delivered and installed last week, she’s a beauty.

The one that got away. Although results wise I picked up a nice net profit, there were a few games where I was left thinking “what if”. AFL ripped my nut sack out, I took the Kangaroo’s minus and ended up with huge CLV on that bet. I had a middle there also, needing the Roo’s between 32-39, up 42-0 I was in the queue waiting for the paying signal. I jumped to the Sharks v Titans and by the time I went back, the Demons were in front 50-58, “what the fuck has happened here”? The cunts didn’t cover, they nearly lost for fucks sake, taking with it another +EV middle. Think that’s 0 from my last 13. Was a little down on AFL over the weekend, but left dreaming of fistfuls of cash.

My success in the NRL rolled on this week. I missed a few spots, but I can’t complain, not only am I netting profit, but I’m beating lines and totals by some way and that bodes well. Good to have some sounding boards to chat to on Twitter. It’s the first full season punting on NRL where I chat to another bunch of fiends before I load up. Generally, I get a feel for the game and look to expose books in-play. Sometimes the algorithm they use is just way off. It just doesn’t account for some things that are crucial in my humble opinion.

Dabbled in some other markets I rarely touch. The NBA stuff was purely ‘arbing’ some games to rack up points in a current VIP Betfair competition. It worked out well, in the last week I doubled my points from 20k to 40k (cash value of around $200 per 10k points). In that time I managed to make $60 or so in the ‘arbs’ after commission, so well worth while. I layed Spieth at $1.30 right before he put it in the piss twice, so that was pleasing. The new mission control centre had its first foray into the horse racing markets too for a small net profit.

As I mentioned the new cockpit has been delivered and installed. I traded less than 15 races, however being able able to see so much more of the ladder length ways and viewing up to 9 runners at once compared to 3 was powerful. The sample is too small to be sure it will have a positive effect yet, but signs are good. Being a new environment, there is some adjusting to get used to, but once settled in I get the feeling it will pay for itself pretty quickly. I’ve thrown some pictures in below for you to check out.

+$1,914.70, account balance +$16,984.40

Cheers Luke

 

Betfair trading profit and loss
Nice week to backup last weeks results.
Weekly trades with bookmakers and Betfair
Weekly individual trades with Bookies and Betfair.
Betfair horse racing trading with 6 screen set up
Betfair race trading with my new six screen set up. Up to 9 ladders at once.
Trading Betfair Newcastle Knights v Wests Tigers NRL
Trading Newcastle Knights v Wests Tigers on Sunday.

Bouncing back and finding balance.

Bouncing back and finding balance.

What a bounce back that was after last week. It started with one of my Twitter buddies letting me know that one of the corporates had a big overs in their cricket market. I snapped some up and that gave me some trading green to play around with during the test. A combination of bets with corporates and trades in Betfair left me with a juicy book; India  $3,060, Draw $3,200, South Africa -$115. Considering India and The Draw were $8 and $1.25 respectively when I’d completed my trading, I liked that book a lot.

I played around in some other markets too, I’m learning so much every market I trade. Learning what makes the markets react and what doesn’t, when they react and when they don’t. Most of my learning comes in typical rookie fashion; by burning the fuck out of my fingers. Without a doubt I do it at least once more until it shits me so much that I don’t do it again. I’d imagine I grabbed the hot stove a couple of times as a child, before learning that it really does hurt.

In the last fortnight I’ve started to find more balance in trading and in life. The big hit to the bankroll in that exhibition match certainly made me rethink some things. I took a step back from trading a bunch of sports, focusing mostly on cricket, which is where I see my biggest future. Outside of trading I’ve been focusing on other things in life too. It’s typical of me to be heavily involved in something new and shiny in my life. I do things 110% which is great, but just of late I’m starting to realise that doing things outside of trading are super important to my success on the ladders.

I’ve offered my services at the local Animal Welfare League, which is an animal shelter aimed at re-homing domestic pets. I’ve done volunteering before and found it very rewarding. I love animals so I’m heading down there to help out a couple of times a week. The girlfriend and I have been doing some more things together too, I wouldn’t say we haven’t spent time together but more heading out together rather than chilling and watching TV. Also, I’m meeting with a careers counsellor (didn’t even know they existed) at Griffith Uni to look at potential courses to study. I’ve liked the idea of going to Uni in the past but never known what I might like to do as a career afterwards. Hated the idea of getting half way through a course and thinking “fuck this shit, this isn’t what I want to do”. So apparently there is some tests etc. that can be done to help point you to the best suited courses.

So things are tracking along ok in life and in trading, I know I’m still leaving a bunch of green on the table with my rookie mistakes, but I get the feeling there is only one way to learn in this game and that’s the hard way. This blog and my little “trading bible” are helping without a doubt to be able to document these lessons and I feel like every day and every week I’m progressing. To say the learning curve is steep at the moment is the understatement of the century.

+$3350 on the week, account balance +$4004

Cheers Luke

 

Betfair trading profit and loss

Betfair cricket trading India v South Africa
India v South Africa cricket book. I used a combination of Betfair and bookmakers prices to get to this result which is why I have displayed it all in a spreadsheet instead of sending my Betfair profit and loss like usual.

I am not a robot, I’m human.

I am not a robot, I’m human.

Well, I’ll say this much about myself; I’m consistent. In this case, the consistency wasn’t a great thing. Much like every other market I’ve tried (horse racing & tennis) mostly spring to mind I jumped into basketball with no idea what I was doing and started mashing big stake buttons to get myself out of early trouble. I didn’t get out of trouble, quite the opposite actually, it’s fair to say my first few forays into the NBA were bad, like really bad.

In retrospect, I shouldn’t have been anywhere near the ladders on the day I gave up a big bunch of cash. Last week I was shaken quite severely with a private family matter. The matter involved a domestic violence issue, it’s not until you are involved in something like that, that you realise how thin the help on the ground is. The support for woman who have been abused in these situations is not enough, I can only imagine how bad it was 10 or 15 years ago.

I thought I was ok; I didn’t touch my computer the night of or the day after, I knew my head wasn’t right. But after that I thought I would be fine, I’d slept and I felt fine, I wasn’t. My thought processes were clearly irrational, I was trading sports I didn’t know, tennis matches I’ve got no data on, I was not being myself. In some ways, I was almost wanting to feel some success through trading to help me with some of the pain I had been through in the last 48 hours. My emotions got to me big time, this is an instance where I can openly admit that.

I was quickly down $900 to start the week. What a disaster, I was upset with what had happened and on top of that I had dumped $900, almost half of what I had made the week before. All the doubt comes rushing back so quickly; “can I do this”, “am I good enough”, “have I just been lucky”. These are not thoughts I’m unfamiliar with; when I started playing poker I also went through this. That makes it easier to deal with, but they still rattle you to an extent.

STOP, PUT DOWN THE MOUSE, STEP AWAY FROM THE COMPUTER! I did have the presence of mind to stop before too much damage was done, there’s a positive to take from that. I was also able to fight back later in the week to a manageable loss of something just under $600, again, another positive. Moving forward, I do need to be more mindful of how external pressures or personal matters can adversely effect my trading. I’m often told about “becoming a robot”, that’s just not me. For a long time I thought if I couldn’t do this I couldn’t be a successful poker player and in turn a successful trader, but I beg to differ. For me, when I say; “go and get fucked, shit pass” or “for fuck’s sake hit a winner”, I’m not so wildly filled with emotion that I’m throwing things around the room, I’m just releasing my thoughts, it’s mostly word vomit (those who know me, know I can spew some words). Emotion was what I felt when I found out about the abuse, the red I saw, the screaming of “FUCKKK I’m going to kill him”, that was emotion.

This was a tough week; physically, mentally, emotionally, financially. Time will only tell how the personal matter resolves itself, as for the trading, it’s onwards and upwards, international cricket season starts this week here in Australia and I’m really looking forward to that.

-$571 on the week, account balance +$7,001

Cheers Luke

Week 5 or 6 profit graph Betfair Trading

Weekly Profit and Loss Betfair Trading
Think this is week 5 or 6 now of my Betfair Trading experience. Making in roads, learning lots.
NBA betfair trading Utah v Pacers
Think this is week 5 or 6 now of my Betfair Trading experience. Making in roads, learning lots.

.