At the moment I’m posting when ever I want. I was doing it weekly, then was going to drop back to monthly but instead I’ll just post when I want to, no set timing. Considering I’m up and rolling at the moment I decided to go again. I did want to show off the new trading kit too. Delivered and installed last week, she’s a beauty.
The one that got away. Although results wise I picked up a nice net profit, there were a few games where I was left thinking “what if”. AFL ripped my nut sack out, I took the Kangaroo’s minus and ended up with huge CLV on that bet. I had a middle there also, needing the Roo’s between 32-39, up 42-0 I was in the queue waiting for the paying signal. I jumped to the Sharks v Titans and by the time I went back, the Demons were in front 50-58, “what the fuck has happened here”? The cunts didn’t cover, they nearly lost for fucks sake, taking with it another +EV middle. Think that’s 0 from my last 13. Was a little down on AFL over the weekend, but left dreaming of fistfuls of cash.
My success in the NRL rolled on this week. I missed a few spots, but I can’t complain, not only am I netting profit, but I’m beating lines and totals by some way and that bodes well. Good to have some sounding boards to chat to on Twitter. It’s the first full season punting on NRL where I chat to another bunch of fiends before I load up. Generally, I get a feel for the game and look to expose books in-play. Sometimes the algorithm they use is just way off. It just doesn’t account for some things that are crucial in my humble opinion.
Dabbled in some other markets I rarely touch. The NBA stuff was purely ‘arbing’ some games to rack up points in a current VIP Betfair competition. It worked out well, in the last week I doubled my points from 20k to 40k (cash value of around $200 per 10k points). In that time I managed to make $60 or so in the ‘arbs’ after commission, so well worth while. I layed Spieth at $1.30 right before he put it in the piss twice, so that was pleasing. The new mission control centre had its first foray into the horse racing markets too for a small net profit.
As I mentioned the new cockpit has been delivered and installed. I traded less than 15 races, however being able able to see so much more of the ladder length ways and viewing up to 9 runners at once compared to 3 was powerful. The sample is too small to be sure it will have a positive effect yet, but signs are good. Being a new environment, there is some adjusting to get used to, but once settled in I get the feeling it will pay for itself pretty quickly. I’ve thrown some pictures in below for you to check out.
Footy is back and not a moment too soon. This is always a good time of year on the punt and if the first handful of rounds is anything to go by, I’m on track for my biggest haul yet. I’m certainly more skilled than I was 12 months ago and my bankroll is larger too, so good signs. My results could easily be 2 or 4k better as I’ve had a number of middles now that haven’t hit the fuckers. Regardless, this has been a great start and I’m really looking forward to moving through the rest of the seasons in both codes.
Lady luck has been a good girl lately. Last week a couple of calls were big swings to me and I’m not sure I didn’t get the “rub of the green” on both to be honest. The first one was in the Broncos v Cowboys thriller at Suncorp. I won’t describe what happened as I’m sure most saw it (watch here if you didn’t). The Thurston no try and ensuing field goal was a $3.2k swing. Think my book was something like -$1800 Cowboys and +$1400 Broncos, was a roller coaster of emotions that last 10 minutes. I’m in a group chat with a bunch of my mates from school, they’re all Broncos supporters. I think I said some things that I didn’t mean about “loving the Broncos, Queensland & Milford”, but lots of silly things are said in the heat of the battle. That Milford is pretty handy though.
The other decision that went my way was in the Raiders v Titans game. There was a dubious decision after the siren in that one that netted me about $500 extra dollars. I guess the real difference with that swing was my book was green on both results (I couldn’t lose), I had layed the Raiders at $1.03 for a bit of comedy green and it paid dividends when the Titans crashed over in the dying stages. One of my mates, a long suffering Raiders fan had them as the last leg of a few multis, poor prick. As he often says “that’s the Raiders”, jokes aside, they are a good looking outfit, love that Austin bloke, must be right in contention for origin you’d think.
AFL has started well, except for Richmond those pricks. This side is so painful to me as I really try to like them and love them. I want them to do well, Bec and her family go for them, her father is the biggest fiend for the Tiges and the grin on its head when they’re going well is infectious. Doubt there is many AFL fans that wouldn’t love to see them get a flag. Remember the “encouragement award” at school and club sports? Thats Richmond FC, every year. The weekend just gone against Collingwood was a new low and my hatred for them reached a new high. How the fuck these pricks lost that game I’ll never know, but they did and I was left with nothing but hope that they all died in a plane crash on their next away game. They were involved in a heist on my overs bet the week before with Carlton too as that missed by half a point. I got reimbursed by Bet365 with the epic promo they have running at the moment (Footy Bonanza), but thats not the point. I can’t forgive moments like Riewoldt marking 40 out on a 45 degree angle deciding to play on, snap, kick the fat side of the footy and score nothing. Go back and kick a drop punt, cunt. Then those two big retards Hampson & Casboult kicking behinds from 20m out right in front, death to the infidels.
Racing is on its last legs. Its sad because I have worked a lot of things out and it feels like its close to being a profitable trading market for me. The old saying goes “men and woman lie, numbers don’t” and at this stage the numbers are telling a horror story. I did some filtering the other day and found that I’ve lost about $8k lifetime trading horses. If you crack it, that sort of money can be recovered very quickly, I can’t continue to throw good money after bad though. Sooner or later you have to pull the pin and realise when you’re beat. I still have one good crack left in me and there are some markets where I perform well, I could find myself sticking to that, I’ll keep everyone posted.
New cock pit is on its way, exciting times. I have no real clue of the power of what I bought but people much nerdier than me tell me this computer I’ve bought is “a beast”. All I know is, I’m going to have 6 monitors going at once and that is going to be fucking awesome. With the help of my bestie and builder extraordinaire Tye Christensen from TCC Homes (shameless plug) it will be wall to wall action. No more worrying about lack of screen space, I’ll be able to have sport, Excel, Geeks Toy and PornHub all open at once now, no more having to play favourites. Pictures to come after its all installed.
Yewwwwww, turning it around. I knew some things were coming together at the end of my last money update. Still humble, still know there is much more to learn, but things coming together for me which gives you added motivation to press on. Pleasing! Both the footy seasons are back and that means its time to make some money. This period is by far my best financially at the moment so it will be head down bum up with the AFL starting this weekend.
Horse racing mistakes are becoming less and less frequent. It’s down to around one or two bad trades now per day which eat up the fat part of my profit. Once I can eliminate that I will be rolling. About a week ago I started an excel spreadsheet which is manually tracking every trade I make. Not just per market, per individual entry and exit during the race. Its been INCREDIBLE! I will be doing this for all markets I trade from now on, it really allows you to see whats working, but maybe more importantly, whats not working. Its not crazy in depth, but it allows me to extract some very handy shit.
I haven’t had a drink for 31 days, not since returning from Vietnam. Hard to tell if its the placebo effect or not, but I feel a lot better. Better sleep, better head space, better motivation and better focus while trading. I’m not doing it for any particular time frame, just as long as I want to. I probably haven’t done it before this for fear of the social aspect of “having a beer”. I think a lot of people feel that way as they have “shit chat” when they aren’t drinking. For me though, I’m able to interact comfortably and still have fun while being sober. That said I went to a 21st when I was about 7 days in and I wanted to commit a mass murder, was still getting used to it I guess. Some people just annoy the fuck out of you sober or not, think its magnified when you’re sober though. Will keep you updated on the sobriety if anything changes or milestones are achieved.
I missed some great games and the biggest racing day last weekend, so the weekly total could have been a lot better. Instead of trading I went camping at North Stradbroke Island with a few friends. Had a great time, great crew, plenty of laughs and surprisingly, very little boozing. Usually I would say that there would be heaps of grog on a trip like that, but this time around we just did a lot of other shit; rod fishing, spear fishing, cooking, swimming, surfing and playing fetch with everyones favourite dog “Hank”. It was really easy to do on short notice for a few nights, be revisiting the option next summer. I usually bunker down over the football season but considering AFL starts this upcoming week I thought I would go and enjoy the outdoors before working my ass off for the next 6 months.
I think it’s time for a FAQ type post. I’m often telling people what I do, I can tell that for the most part, its hard to grasp verbally. Maybe written with some pretty pictures will help people to get their heads around it. Hopefully I can dispel some some of the common beliefs that just aren’t right along the way too.
Q. What is sports trading?
A. Sports trading is trading the fluctuations in prices before and during the event. Trading the movements of the odds allows you to build whats called “a book” or ledger. Much like a bookmaker builds a book in any of the events they take bets on, sports traders can build their book by backing or laying a particular runner in an event.
Q. What is lay betting?
A. When I “lay a bet”, I’m essentially playing bookmaker. This means someone has a bet with me on a particular runner in an event and if that runner wins, I need to pay out the person the worth of the bet. If the runner loses I keep the amount bet by the person, just like a bookmaker would.
Q. Whats the difference between what you do and a bookmaker?
A. There are subtle differences, but ultimately there are a lot of similarities to what we do. The biggest difference is obviously the volume, solo sports traders like myself have much smaller bankrolls than your big corporate bookies. As such, the size of the bets taken and placed are much smaller. I’m able to dictate from the get go, how much risk I have on any given trade. Like bookmakers though I can adjust that risk before and during the match.
Q. So you’re just gambling for a living?
A. Well, in short, yes. What makes the proposition different from a few mates having a bet on the footy each weekend though is the ability for me to hedge my position during the event. I often have a number of chances to limit my risk while the match is on, or, guarantee profits no matter the outcome of the event. Check out the screen grab from Betfair on a trade done in the 2011 French Open.
Q. Trading the stock market would be less risky, right?
A. This is a massive myth. I’d say they carry equal risk, if you buy shares you are making a bet that the value of those shares will rise in value. No one knows, unless you’re insider trading, that would be like fixing in the sports trading world, but that topic is for another day. I’d go as far to say that any investment is a gamble, some bigger than others, but you think the people who had a total of $140 billion invested in their saving accounts during the great depression saw that investment as a “gamble”? Of course not, it was “as safe as houses”. Speaking of houses, do you think the people that bought “sub-prime” homes in the US before the property bubble bust in the mid 2000’s thought they were gambling? No, it was a sure thing, its property. There are no “sure things” when investing at any level.
Q. How do you know what will happen in an event?
A. I don’t, no one knows, but based on my knowledge of how prices move in the market and what might be “more likely” to happen I can take positions before or during a match. Let me give you an example, lets say you look at the form of a race and see that out of the 8 runners, one of the runners has lead in every one of its previous races, meanwhile, non of the other runners have ever lead. You could make a fair estimation that this runner will lead again and place a back bet on the runner, expecting it to shorten in price the further it goes along in front. At a certain time in the race you can place a lay bet on that horse either removing liability or creating a hedge across all of the runners (like the Nadal example earlier).
Q. Do you use any specific tools to trade with?
A. I use a program called Geeks Toy which is designed for sports trading. There is a number of these about, some good, some not. A bunch of guys I know just use the Betfair interface though and they are very successful traders. So you don’t need expensive kit to start off trading, just a smartphone/ computer, internet and maybe a calculator.
Q. Don’t you wish you had security of knowing what you make every week?
A. I’d be lying if I said there isn’t a part of me that would love that. But at the same time, I don’t see employment or your own business as anything that is 100% fail proof either. In fact, starting a business is a huge gamble in itself. I had coffee with a friend of mine recently that has gone balls out to start his own business, hes liquidated everything and I mean everything, houses, cars, the lot. On top of that hes in debt, this guy will likely make it happen because thats the kind of guy he is, but still, there are risks attached to what hes done, risks that will have serious financial ramifications if for what ever reason it doesn’t go his way. As for employee status, I hate working for someone else, first and foremost, secondly, just because you have a job that doesn’t mean you will have employment with that business forever. You wouldn’t have to travel far to find someone with a horrible story of being made redundant and depending on their age when made redundant, it can be very tough to get back into the work force.
Q. How much can you make sports trading realistically?
I’ve been putting this off because, I thought it was going to take a lot of digging around as I haven’t updated my balance before Vietnam. That and the fact that I knew the financial slide had continued for me overall. Like most things that you procrastinate about, it wasn’t nearly as bad once I got stuck into it. Your head has this amazing way to make a mountain out of a mole hill at times, the sooner you rip and get it done the better.
Anyway, enough bullshit, on to the dollars. As I hinted the new plot on the graph shows a continued decline in profits. This doesn’t bode well for my dreams of sailing on a yacht in the Caribbean, next time Australia play the Windies over there. Although it can’t be seen, things have started to turn around in the last week and a bit. The lowest point my balance got to was about $1,000 less than what you see, a few things have really started to click for me in the racing markets. Yesterday I had my best day there with $350 netted, I won’t be declaring it a winner until I can put a month of consistency together, I have a lot to learn still, I’m doing that, but I’m “quietly confident” that its coming together for me.
Cricket is ramping up with the WT20 competition starting in India a couple of nights ago. I thought I was going to stay up all through the night for the competition, but fuck it, I really don’t enjoy the format enough to put myself through the pain. I will trade the earlier games that start at 7.30pm as they are ideal, but the 12.00am start can do one. Obviously, key matches I will stay up for, but at the moment in the pool stages I couldn’t give a shit.
I just want to make mention of the people that have helped me on this journey. In the past I’ve been focusing a lot of energy on people that are negative towards what I’m doing, trying to change their perception, I couldn’t give a flying fuck any more. The people I want to focus on are the people that have helped and encouraged me. I could do the standard “you know who you are” thing, but instead, going to list a bunch of people and how they’ve helped:
Becca – Hasn’t been easy for her I know, but she always backs me, I love you for that.
Peter Clark – Supported me in a number of ways throughout the years and on this venture hes been no different.
Greg Millar – Backed me 110% when I started playing poker full-time, without his support wouldn’t be doing this now.
Tristan, Robbie & Dave – Great lads, great support, great sounding board when things are tough.
The parents, they never know exactly what I’m doing but they’re never worried, usually more intrigued than anything.
@muller234 – Top bloke, always supported me, there from the start, has similar goals and dreams, great for a laugh. Pretty smart for a Geordie too.
@back2layhorses – Again, there from the start, chasing his dream too, always checks in to see how things are going, top bloke. Who would have thought England had so many champion blokes living there?
@tradermatt106 – There isn’t too many more people that have put time into me in terms of trading cricket. If you’re not following this guy, you should be.
@Relaxer_ – Seriously sharp operator and has put in a bunch of time to me. Listening to my rants and calming me down, thanks for the help legend.
@aussieruled – Not trading on the level of Matt & Relaxer, but certainly the first guy to show me around the markets, also been a great voice of reason over the time.
@DownIsTheNewUp_ – Legend guy, pretty much keeps to himself, but been very influential for me, always very succinct.
@Trooa – Don’t let the class clown act fool you, this guy is sharp. Another real supporter and been a huge help in my journey, cheers JT.
@leantothewind – This guy is a champion too, making his way, similar dreams to mine and he is having a crack. Hoping to be able to nail this caper together.
@Lost_MyProphets – After an honest post of mine, this guy reached out to me and has poured in a bunch of time to help me, super guy, very appreciative.
@CaanBerryTrader – Not as accessible as some others, his content is very good and has been a source to turn to when things haven’t been right.
@Tennisratings – I don’t do a lot of tennis these days, but this guy is a out and out champion, always makes time for you and very supportive, thanks Dan.
@day25 – Steve is a good egg, always makes time for you and has been a supporter of my blog. His blog has always been a place to go bury my head when times are tough.
Bunch of boys from Twitter; Tom, RKM79, Jesse, Lenny, Dan Armo, Charchandrick Bets, Tommy, GreenForm, Oruas, AngryRay, John Millward, Lix, Fenners, Onlyfoolsgamble, Sim, Paul, few others I may have missed. Supporters and good for a laugh.
All readers from Facebook; All the comments of support when I post, does mean a lot and thanks a ton. Special mention to the crew in “Derolicked politics”.
All these people have helped back me and I really appreciate that. It doesn’t go unnoticed and its very humbling to have great support. I must not lose sight of the support, for every hater there is 50 supporters in my life 🙂
I had another blow out. So disappointing, going away on holiday tomorrow and didn’t really need this. Up until then it was a low-key but profitable week; picking up about $600 of profit. I had picked up where I left off on my horse racing edge, working on getting my sample size bigger and things were going along nicely. Yesterday I attempted to trade some Australian races, but the liquidity was so terrible that the markets were far too volatile. I got stuck with one lay, the race jumped before I could hedge, you know what happens, the thing comes from 2nd last to win. Things went downhill from there.
I attempted to mug bet my way out of the hole, but the hole got deeper and deeper. In the end I busted a bank, giving back the money I had won during the week and more. It’s disappointing, these are mistakes I’ve made before and it certainly makes you second guess your ability to progress in this industry. Maybe I’m destined to fail like everyone seemingly expects me to.
I hate to admit that I could be so foolish as to do this, it’s embarrassing really, I was a complete whale punter yesterday, sad shit. It’s so embarrassing that I didn’t want to write this blog post about it. But when I set out to do this, it was going to be “warts and all”, no hiding the truth from people, besides, in the future these are the posts that may help someone on their journey and that’s half the reason I’m doing it.
There were positives to come out of it all. Yesterday was the first proper realisation that this is going to send me back to “the real world” if I don’t plug this leak. With my other blow outs I either blamed the market, the player, team or that fucking horse that came from 2nd last, (jokes, not it’s fault at all, this is on me). I would rationalise it by saying “I could afford to take a bit of an extra risk there”. But this is it, I’m making a stand on this sort of shit. No more, this loss will be a “watershed moment” for me and I will be making some changes to help stop this from happening again.
As I fuck shit up, rules are added to the list. I’ve added a safety net for these sorts of mishaps, I won’t be having any more than $500 in my Betfair account at any one time. Any additional winnings will be withdrawn, while I will top up the account if required after any losses. When I played poker full-time I had a session limit I was prepared to lose. Although in theory I shouldn’t digress from my most effective strategies when winning or losing, the fact is that when I lose a “significant amount”, my head get’s a little fucked up and I’m not thinking with complete clarity. The next rule is pretty simple; don’t, fucking, do that, again!
I’ve decided to take a step back, some time off is what I need right now. I’ve been at this like a bull at a gate for the last 2 months and it’s taken me to breaking point and back again. I’m like that though, very impatient and impulsive at times. I want everything to happen yesterday, especially when I know I’m on to something good. Right now though, the best thing for me and my trading adventure is to take a step back and focus on some other things in my life.
I ain’t quitting, it nearly broke me (mentally not financially), but all things that have been great in my life have done the same. I just want to step back from it all, look it a little more objectively and start to build a plan on how I’m going to attack it when I do come back into it. I like to have a plan, goals, structure, just randomly clicking buttons without tracking my success is shit to me.
I’m talking weeks, not months, I’ll be back on deck within the week or so, just a week off or so, find some clarity and go again. In that time I will also be reading a book by Daniel Weston http://www.harriman-house.com/book/view/731/lifestyle/daniel-weston/mastering-tennis-trading/ so I will let you all know how that goes. I follow Dan on Twiiter (@tennisratings), seems a very knowledgable lad in the space, so we’ll see what it uncovers.
Also been talking with, @MrUnknownTrader, again, smart guy with some good insight and suggestions for me moving forward. It’s hard you know, this trading stuff is a very secretive world. Don’t get me wrong, I understand why, people are shitting themselves that if their edges/ angles are revealed then they won’t be as profitable, fine, understood. What pisses me off though is how you can then sell books and video’s? Take poker, because I have experience in it, there is also many similarities. In poker, there is tons of books and videos, most are fucking shit, it takes little time to find the ones with substance. Fuck, I’ve had the best players in the world tell me what to read to start beating the game. So not only did the author publish a book that tells you how to beat it, but players that have built their edge in the game from that book also tell you to read it. Why aren’t they all secretive and buying copies of the book and burning them so no one can read it?
Most people are stupid, it’s true, if you have ever worked with people you will know this. Just because a book or video is out there that tells people how to do something, that doesn’t mean they can then apply it. People have written books on how to beat blackjack through basic card counting principles, are casino’s going broke from people playing perfect strategy and card counting? No, they aren’t. From what I have seen, the industry of Betfair Trading is mostly filled with content that politely, I could say is, well, I won’t say, I don’t want to be rude. But it starts with fucking and it ends with shit. The cost of some of these courses and things too, give us a break would you? We were born at night, it wasn’t last night.
If anyone has any suggestions of content that is worth reading/ watching, I’m all ears, I’m also happy to be proven wrong. But at this stage, anything of worthy note has been very limited.