As the title suggests, things continued to roll along. As I look back through my plays since the last blog entry, I notice that some of the reds are alarmingly 4 figures. They are offset by more green 4 figure sums, which is pleasing. That wasn’t a humble brag, more so, a point of reflection, it shows how my bankroll and bet sizes have significantly grown in 8 months. I used to tilt my tits off when I lost 4 figures. Twitter friends were desperately PM’ing the missus to get her to hide the sharp objects around the house. Now those occasions are saved for Richmond games. Fucking Richmond, don’t start me on those maggots please.

I purchased some new equipment a little while ago. Finally I’ve produced my first piece of non written content. TommyBet and JT will enjoy the subject of my first video. TommyBet might learn a thing or two if he isn’t too fried from Iron Maiden. His biggest shock will be that you don’t have to drive across the “boarder” to get set. It’s far from Hollywood quality, I’m pretty happy with it on a small budget, and limited previous editing skills. If you have any feedback on the video (embedded below) or questions on the topic, please get in touch, like to hear from you.

I will do a few more quick videos, just keen to get some content up and out as well as learning to use editing software. I have plans for a trading podcast and some cool video content I want to release. For me it’s about trying to work out how to best release everything without over lapping and more importantly making it easy for me as I’m lazy. That is all in the pipeline and foreseeable future, for now, few more little tips and tricks style videos while I piece it all together.

Minimal league with “rep round” just gone. Another piss poor attempt to revive non origin representative football. City v Country, give me a fucking break would you? That is the biggest piece of dog shit that game, its not used as a trial, so whats the point? Increased chance of injury to some of the most highly paid players in the league. There is no intensity, club games are more important to players, they go harder there, watch them there for fucks sake. Queensland have no “trial” and their setup seems to be, some what successful. Someone on Twitter said it best; “Aaron Gray scored 4 tries and he is not in the top 10 wingers for NSW”. Farce, drop it, move on, absolute garbage.

That said, attentions turned to AFL, entirely. Hello! AFL has come roaring back into the black this season with a 6-1 weekend. To be fair, it was a perfect 5-0 weekend, the last two bets were offset against each other. I think that one was a 18 point middle, missed by a fair way again. What was pleasing though, weekend before last, I finally drilled one in the Carlton v Essendon game, had $1000 per side on that one, paid for some of the VIG  I’ve paid in middles up until now. I’ve attached a picture of my Unibet account below, be lying if I said that didn’t frustrate me, $140.25 of a requested $1500 bet accepted. The bet was a middle, it landed so $2500 or so went begging there. Anyway, I’ll land a big one soon enough, I’m sure.

+$6,643.21, account balance +$29,491.83

Sports trading and gambling profit/ loss
Sports trading profit/ loss chart
Sports trading and gambling individual plays
Sports trading individual trades and plays from the last fortnight or so
Unibet rejected my bet on AFL
Rejected bet from Unibet, middle landed, Murphy’s Law.

 

8 thoughts on ““The only way is up, baaabbyyy, for you and me now”

    1. I bet with all the Australian online bookmakers. Some I’m limited or banned from, but thats fine, I still get bets on with them through friends at times.

      I find Bet365 is the best bookmaker for live stuff. TopSport is the best in terms of being able to get a bet on, others are better in terms of pricing, NSW TAB would have to be up there for that I’d say.

      Obviously Betfair is a crucial account to have and although like you say there isn’t huge market depth, the more people that find out about the exchange and start to use it the better. I still tend to think we haven’t fully adopted Betfair here yet, probably due to the in play betting rules for sport.

      Like

  1. Hi Luke,

    I’ve been searching for the equations that say the profitability of each sport? However, I can’t find them. Would you be able to point me in the right direction please?

    Cheers.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Hey Jeremy,

      Don’t think there is any specific website that has the math done for every sport, which sports do you bet on, I can probably help with some information.

      Cheers Luke

      Like

  2. Cool, as a general rule for AFL you want 6 points or more for totals and lines. A little more if its a big line or total, i.e. a 6 point middle when the line is -9 is +EV while a 6 point middle when the line is -80 is not. But to keep it simple, around 6 points, if they big, add 1 or 2 points.

    NRL isn’t quite that easy as there are key numbers to think about. As majority of scoring is multiples of 2 in NRL, certain numbers are more likely to hit than others. With this in mind, you need to be able to plug the numbers in to see if it’s worthy or not. Mate of mine Tom https://twitter.com/chicken_palma has come up with a calculator to work it out. He’s happy for me to share and I can send it if you would like to email me.

    lukeamac(at)yahoo(dot)com(dot)au

    Cheers Luke

    Like

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