Only two matches I was interested in last week; New Zealand v Sri Lanka and Australia v West Indies. Whilst on the subject, how fucked in the head are the schedulers to have the Windies playing Boxing Day here? For fucks sake, would you might having New Zealand playing in our premier tests of the year? This isn’t my book talking either, my local is the Gabba. As a cricket nut this is not a good look for the heart of the summer, embarrassing actually.
On to the important shit; the gambling. As the title suggests, I looked at these two tests, looked at the prices and said “this blows”. The Aussie test was a pure write off, I like to lay shorties like that usually but sadly I didn’t see Australia getting out past the $1.12 quote and maybe apart from once when I think I saw them at $1.15 they didn’t. The lack of market confidence in the ‘Caribbean Clown Clan’ was shown when on the first morning they had Australia 3/121, Warner and Smith in the sheds, but still Australia were $1.13. New Zealand on the other hand seemed like their price could drift so there was a bit of interest in that ‘match odds’ market.
Really though, most of my attention was on run lines. I focused on player, total, 5/10/15 over run lines for both of the tests. Shits me how in Australia we can’t bet on ‘unders’ for run lines in matches; involving or played in Australia. Its a stupid fucking rule from Cricket Australia to try and stop fixing. Shows how out of touch these peanuts are with controlling issues around fixing. The following example was given to me the other day, when discussing this issue with a guy on Twitter; “how much would you have to pay Warner to throw it away $500k? $700k? Then to break even you need to get $700k or $900k on just to cover that payment to him, which bookie will let you on for that on a run line bet?”
It was another great week, new weekly record by some way; but mostly it was good to be able to read the game over a solid sample and make my decisions on which way to go. Angelo Mathews fucked me twice, the second one was much worse than the first, 2.5 run loser second up. I adjusted my stakes based on what I perceived my edge to be on each bet. It paid dividends which was nice. Also I’ve stepped up my usual position sizes up as my roll is now 3 times what it was when I started.
Big Bash starting this week; I haven’t had much success in the shorter forms of the game up until now, mind you I’ve been dealing with some horrific leagues. Seems like the BBL is a license to print money, makes me nervous though. It seems expected that everyone wins, what a chump if I don’t have success in it. I won’t be doing anything for the first few matches apart from taking advantage of Bet365’s in-play promo. Heading to Melbourne early tomorrow morning for a family Christmas party. I don’t want to think about the drama if I’m on my phone every second checking prices and scores. Truth is I don’t want to either, be good to get away on a mini holiday. That said; I’ll be placing a pre match bet and then one live free shot and leaving it.
+$4,996 on the week, account balance +$10458