I come from a punting background, I’m not a pure degenerate though, I have pure “degen” mates, I’m qualified in spotting the characteristics. At heart though I’m willing to take a punt on something, a calculated risk if you like. As long as I have an edge I’ll take a chance on it. Last night I was making my second ever tennis trade and found the punter taking over the trader inside me. Was I right or was I wrong to do what I did?
It was the Fish v Lopez match, for those that are mentally challenged and or helping ISIS fight the infidels in Syria, this was in the US Open. I had entered the market at $2.00 when Lopez went down 15-40 while serving. His price was around $1.35 at the start of the service game. I figured if he could pull out one point, he’d shorten, I could lower my liability and then let the trade run how ever I liked from there.
Fast forward, after a number of little trades (I’m only learning so small $10 stakes and less) I now have a book that shows roughly $6 if Lopez wins, -$3 if Fish wins the match. Let me make it clear that at no stage had I intended to let this run out with the book looking like that. My intentions were to exit the market for green across the board. That was until there was a major fundamental change happening in front of my eyes. Fish was injured.
This guy was literally playing on one leg, he couldn’t run, he could barely get to the ball, especially on drop shots etc. He was battling so hard. One shot on the baseline he moaned loudly as he had to reach for the ball, this guy can’t win like this, can he?
Some will read and laugh; Luke, for fucks sake, you had $3 on the line, who cares, let it run. But those with that attitude miss the point completely. As my under 13’s cricket coach used to say at training “practice here how you will play in the middle.” Usually it was with a few swear words and mostly directed at me. I thought I was such a hero for smashing every bowler that ran in at training, only to get out in the middle on Saturday and defend every ball that got bowled to me, retiring for 3 off 45 balls. Anyway, I digress, the point is, I want to approach this situation the same when I have $3000 on the line as I do when I have $3 on the line.
Tennis trading guru’s, what was the right thing to do here? Please let me know, it was an interesting little spot, might not come up a whole lot, but I’m sure it will come up again.